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United States

China

Japan

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Military & Security

Politics

What is the future of Japan and the U.S.'s military relationship?

Essential Geopolitics: What Continued U.S.-Japan Cooperation Means for China

Assessments

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Argentina

Bolivia

Peru

Palestinian Territories

France

Spain

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and his wife, Begona Gomez, arrive Oct. 5, 2023, at the Carlos V Palace at the Alhambra in Granada, Spain. Sanchez is expected to make an announcement about his political future on April 29 following his surprise decision April 25 to suspend public appearances after a court in Madrid announced an investigation into his wife for alleged influence-peddling and corruption.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South American Foreign Ministers Visit China, the Spanish Premier Announces His Political Future

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 25, 2024

Snapshots

Russia

Moldova

People hold Moldovan national flags as they gather outside the presidential palace in Chisinau on Dec. 14, 2023, to celebrate the European Council's decision to open accession talks with Moldova.

In the lead-up to the October presidential election and referendum on Moldova's EU integration, Moscow and its Moldovan political allies will step up their efforts to destabilize the country's pro-European government.

In Moldova, Two Key Votes Portend More Pro-Russian Political Agitation

Rwanda

Congolese soldiers sit in a military vehicle in Kamanyola, a village in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, on Feb. 28, 2024. 

The intensifying fight against M23 rebels in eastern Congo risks triggering border clashes with Rwanda that could threaten Congolese President Tshisekedi's government and risk disrupting Congo's cobalt exports.

Where Is the Conflict in Eastern Congo Headed?

An aerial view shows residential buildings under construction by Chinese real estate developer Vanke in Hangzhou, in eastern China's Zhejiang province, on March 15, 2024. 

Economics

Without productivity-enhancing economic reform, China's economic growth will likely continue to slow amid insufficient demand and continued over-investment.

Gauging the Risk of a Systemic Financial Crisis in China

Europe

June 9 European Parliament elections will likely see right-wing and far-right parties make significant gains in several EU countries at the expense of center-left and green parties.

2024 Elections: The European Union

Ecuador

Iran

Israel

A banner depicts IRGC missile models aimed at Israel on April 16 in the Iranian capital of Tehran. The ongoing confrontation may be entering a de-escalation phase after the April 19 Israeli counterstrike to Iran's April 13 salvo against Israel.

The Weekly Rundown: Israel-Iran Conflict, Ecuador's Constitutional Referendum

Social Issues

What are the biggest issues with the U.S. healthcare system, and how can we address them?

RANE Insights: Addressing Problems in the U.S. Healthcare System

Tit-for-tat military exchanges between Iran and its proxies against Israel will likely continue, with a constant risk of escalation.

Israel Launches Measured Attack on Iran, but Escalation Risks Remain

Iran will likely respond to Israel's attack, but the scope and size of Iran's response will depend on the scope of Israel's military actions, which is unclear at this time.

Israel Responds to the Iranian Attack

Latest

Panama

Panama presidential candidate Jose Raul Mulino of the conservative Realizing Goals party gestures during a campaign rally in Panama City on April 28, 2024. 

The Central American country's next president will take office at a time of deepening economic challenges and political tensions, creating business uncertainty and unrest risks in the years ahead.


Previewing Panama's Presidential Election

Pakistan

A welcoming billboard displaying an image of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (left) and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is seen along a street in Karachi, Pakistan, on April 22, 2024. 

Energy

Pakistan and Iran's embattled pipeline project, which has faced delays amid funding issues and U.S. sanction concerns, could impede recent efforts to boost bilateral cooperation.

For Pakistan and Iran, a Delayed Pipeline Could Undermine Improved Relations

Morocco

Moroccan Air Force mechanics examine an F-16 fighter jet at an airbase in Ben Guerir, about 58 kilometers north of Marrakesh, Morocco, on June 14, 2021. 

Pressure from its pro-Palestinian population will not deter Morocco from using Israeli technology to expand its domestic weapons capabilities, as Rabat seeks to catch up to Algeria’s military power and position itself as an arms exporter.

Despite the Gaza War, Morocco-Israel Defense Ties Look Set to Deepen

Singapore

A photo of Singapore's Parliament building against a cityscape.

Singapore's Incoming Prime Minister Brings a Fresh Face to an Old Regime

France's Prime Minister Gabriel Attal (C) speaks during the opening session of "Questions to the Prime Minister" at the French National Assembly in Paris, on April 3, 2024.

To right the sinking ship of France's public finances, Paris must implement unpopular economic measures that could lead to government collapse.

France's Budget Troubles Bode Ill for Macron Ahead of EU Elections

Palestinians walk past damaged buildings in Khan Yunis on April 8, 2024, after Israel pulled its ground forces out of the southern Gaza Strip. 

Israel is shifting to smaller, more targeted operations, but its apparent lack of a long-term governance plan for Gaza will enable Hamas to maintain influence there without fully appeasing Israel's international allies.

The Implications of Israel's Updated Gaza Strategy

People gather outside the provincial legislature of Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly in Peshawar on Feb. 28, 2024. 

The delay may mar the upper house's credibility and cause political instability, but it is unlikely to significantly impede policymaking.


The Impact of Pakistan's Delayed Senate Formation

Columns

On Geopolitics

Australia

Fiji

Indonesia

New Zealand

North Korea

Philippines

South Korea

Vietnam

United Kingdom

India

A 3D rendering of Southeast Asia from space at night with city lights showing Southeast Asian cities in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.

Environment, Science & Technology

In the Asia-Pacific, countries are increasingly pursuing complex networks of political, economic and defense ties as part of a burgeoning "multi-alignment" strategy that seeks to avoid U.S.-China strategic competition.

Examining 'Multi-Alignment' in the Asia-Pacific

U.S.-China Relations

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukraine

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

Mexico

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

Finland

Sweden

Norway

A heavy-lift helicopter operated by the U.S. military flies over a tank in Setermoen, Norway, during a military exercise involving NATO troops and partner countries on March 22, 2022. 

The U.S.'s new pacts with Sweden, Finland and Denmark signal its intent to play a key role in transforming NATO's approach to securing its northern flank against Russia.

The Significance of U.S. Defense Cooperation Agreements in Northern Europe

Ukrainian servicemen fire with a 105mm howitzer toward Russian positions near the city of Bakhmut on March 8, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine faces immense challenges in 2024 and 2025 that only increased Western support and a new strategy that brings the war inside Russia would be capable of overcoming. 

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: Ukraine's Challenge in 2024 and Beyond

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the United States was close to presenting a security deal to Saudi Arabia if it normalized relations with Israel, Agence France-Presse reported on April 29. 

U.S.: Blinken Prepares Saudi Security Deal Dependent on Israel Normalization, Floats More GCC Defense Integration

Iraq

Iraq's National Assembly passed the conservative Shiite-backed Law on Combating Prostitution and Homosexuality, which criminalizes same-sex relationships punishable by 10-15 years in prison, punishes transgender individuals and doctors who provide gender-affirming surgeries, and mandates at least seven years in prison for anyone promoting homosexuality or prostitution, Al Jazeera reported on April 27.

Iraq: Baghdad Criminalizes Same-Sex Relationships, Gender-Affirming Surgeries, Prostitution

Cyber

Science & Technology

The European Commission will announce a probe into Meta Platforms on April 29 over purported claims that the company is not doing enough to counter disinformation, the Financial Times reported the same day.

EU: European Commission To Announce Probe Into Meta Over Disinformation

Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost all three by-elections on April 28, including the Tokyo No. 15 and Nagasaki No. 3 districts -- in which no LDP candidate ran -- and the Shimane No. 1 district, in which the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party took the traditional LDP stronghold, The Asahi Shimbun reported on April 29.

Japan: The Ruling Party's By-Election Losses Will Test Kishida in Diet Debate

South Africa

Australian multinational mining company BHP is consulting investors to issue a revised proposal to acquire British multinational mining company Anglo American after the company's first takeover bid was rejected on April 26, Reuters reported on April 29.

South Africa: BHP Consults Investors Ahead of Likely New Bid in Anglo American 

Yemen

A drone attack targeted the Emirati-operated Khor Mor gas field in Iraqi Kurdistan in the Sulaymaniyah district, killing four Yemeni workers, Reuters reported on April 27.

Iraq: Unclaimed Drone Attack Hits the Khor Mor Gas Field in Iraqi Kurdistan

Cambodia

Malaysia

Myanmar

Thailand

Bangladesh

Countries across South and Southeast Asia are issuing extreme heat warnings for at least the next three days, though likely longer, as the region grapples with an extended heat wave, portending health risks, business and school closures, and strained electric grids, VnExpress reported on April 29. 

Southeast Asia: Extreme Heat Wave Creates Health and Business Risks, Stresses Energy Grids

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced that he would not resign over a corruption and influence peddling investigation into his wife, Begona Gomez, and that he would instead fight the smear campaign against his family, El Pais reported on April 29.

Spain: Prime Minister Decides Not To Resign Over Wife's Corruption Investigation

Guests attend a naming ceremony for the Valentin Pikul black class tanker of Russia's Rosneft oil company on Sept. 11, 2023, in Bolshoi Kamen, outside of Vladivostok, Russia. 

Russia's current economic challenges are unlikely to prompt Moscow to de-escalate in Ukraine this year or next, though a drop in oil revenues may eventually combine with other factors to change its calculations in the long term.

Reassessing Russia's Ability To Finance Its War in Ukraine

On Security

Chile

Costa Rica

Guatemala

Policemen guard the car of Mayor Luis Chonillo after an attack on the official May 15, 2023, in Duran, Ecuador. Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Forecasting Latin America's Next Crime Hotspot After Ecuador

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the Vostochny Cosmodrome, a spaceport in Russia's Far East, on Sept. 13, 2023. 

Kim Jong Un appears to be setting a new direction for his country's regional and international policies, clearly aware of the vast uncertainties facing the global geopolitical situation.

North Korea's Foreign Affairs Hit an Inflection Point

Argentina's Chamber of Deputies will start debating a watered-down version of the government's "omnibus bill," a package of economic reforms that previously failed due to insufficient congressional support, La Nacion reported on April 29.

Argentina: Chamber of Deputies Starts Debate on Updated 'Omnibus Bill'

The International Monetary Fund reached a staff-level agreement with Ecuador to provide approximately $4 billion in funding under a four-year Extended Fund Facility, with the deal still subject to executive board approval, Reuters reported on April 25.

Ecuador: Government Reaches Staff-Level Agreement With IMF

Turkey

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

Previewing Panama's Presidential Election

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S.: Blinken Prepares Saudi Security Deal Dependent on Israel Normalization, Floats More GCC Defense Integration

Iraq: Baghdad Criminalizes Same-Sex Relationships, Gender-Affirming Surgeries, Prostitution

EU: European Commission To Announce Probe Into Meta Over Disinformation

Japan: The Ruling Party's By-Election Losses Will Test Kishida in Diet Debate

South Africa: BHP Consults Investors Ahead of Likely New Bid in Anglo American

Iraq: Unclaimed Drone Attack Hits the Khor Mor Gas Field in Iraqi Kurdistan

Southeast Asia: Extreme Heat Wave Creates Health and Business Risks, Stresses Energy Grids

Spain: Prime Minister Decides Not To Resign Over Wife's Corruption Investigation

Argentina: Chamber of Deputies Starts Debate on Updated 'Omnibus Bill'

Ecuador: Government Reaches Staff-Level Agreement With IMF

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