The Big Lead

NCAA Tournament Bubble Breakdown: Connecticut, Once Left for Dead, Now One Big Week From Being in the Mix

By Jason Lisk

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The defending champion Connecticut Huskies are lurking and about to jump on the bubble. In deep trouble at 11-9, after a road loss at Houston and a poor RPI, the Huskies have gone 6-2 in the last month and just beat SMU over the weekend–their best win of the year.

The true number of bubble teams, depending on your view of who has clinched a spot, is somewhere around 24 teams for 15 spots as the final regular season week is underway. On Sunday, I ran a bracket breakdown, and teams like BYU (Gonzaga) and Boise State (San Diego State) added huge wins to shake things up.

In a re-scrub of the teams under consideration, I’m left with this, UCONN is very much in the mix. Still work to do, but not needing an automatic bid to get there.

Why do I say that? Below is a breakdown of every potential bubble team. It represents those from power conferences with a RPI below 38, above 70, along with other teams with an RPI below 24 and better than 50 that would not be considered locks.

I list several items: the current RPI ranking, the ranking in Pomeroy, record vs. teams in the at-large field, record vs. others under consideration (and combined), and the best wins.

The current cutoff would be between where the colors change from green to blue. That’s assuming no teams claiming auto bids who would otherwise not be in the field, in multi-bid conferences.

So Connecticut is down the list now. Win at Memphis and avenge the early season home loss by winning at Temple? They are very much in the discussion at 19-11. The RPI would go up inside the top 60. The record against tourney-type teams would go to 5-8, which may not sound impressive but would put them in the discussion with plenty of other teams.

Take Temple, for example, who is mainly living on the Kansas win to be more solidly in right now. If Connecticut wins, Temple goes to 3-8 against tourney-type teams. A 5-8 record against tourney teams would put them better or in the range of several others, including UCLA, Ole Miss, Texas, Texas A&M, Pitt, and Tulsa.

Oh, and the American Conference Tourney is in Hartford. If Connecticut is a 4-seed and draws Temple again, they can basically move into the field without needing the auto bid.

Other notes about the bubble–

  • From doing the mock selection, and observing past selection behavior, big wins and “who you beat” outweighs bad losses. That’s why a team like NC State is in pretty good shape, and why the BYU win at Gonzaga was a major difference maker;
  • Texas A&M is an interesting case. The RPI would say they are in. They haven’t beaten a team solidly in the field. The only two wins over potential tourney teams are both over LSU (they only played Arkansas, Kentucky, and Georgia once each in the imbalanced schedule). Those wins may play, but consider that Ole Miss beat A&M, and LSU swept Ole Miss, and the head-to-head argument diminishes.
  • Texas is an extreme case, and really needed that win over Baylor last night. They are now 4-12 against tourney type teams, and right or wrong, the committee doesn’t account for close losses to top teams.
  • How will the committee view Division II games, if at all? One of my many criticisms of the RPI is how it ignores D-II games while punishing blowout wins over the dregs of Division I. Playing one D-II game versus having a really bad D-I team pulling the RPI can make a big difference around the bubble. Then you have Tulsa, who actually lost to a D-II team. If that game came against one of the worst teams in D-I, their RPI would plummet to the mid-40’s instead of 33. Their profile is otherwise not impressive, so they will need to rely on the committee valuing that RPI number, without considering the D-II result.

Here are your biggest bubble games this week:

Tulsa vs. Cincinnati (Wednesday) and at SMU (Sunday): Tulsa is 14-2 in conference and could get the top seed for the conference tourney. Their profile isn’t really that great, though, and these would be the two best wins of the year. Lose them, and the committee will be taking a closer look at just how this team stacks up.

 

Pittsburgh vs. Miami (Wednesday): Could be a “loser is out” type game in the ACC. Both are in tenuous positions coming in. Miami probably needs the road win to keep in the conversation.

Davidson vs. VCU (Thursday): Davidson needs this home game as their tourney statement. The Wildcats have probably been the second best A-10 team but need that win to sway the committee.

Connecticut at Temple (Saturday): see above

Purdue vs. Illinois (Saturday): The Boilermakers have come on, and I think can solidify a tourney spot with a win here. Illinois is 4-8 against tourney-type teams and probably can’t afford a loss.

LSU at Arkansas (Saturday): LSU has some bad losses pulling them down. Another road win at Arkansas, to go with wins at West Virginia and Ole Miss, would probably seal the deal. A loss leaves them very much in the lurch at the SEC tourney.

Stanford at Arizona (Saturday): Stanford desperately needs a big win. Their RPI has slipped outside the Top 50 and there are no signature wins to fall back on. This massive upset would definitely do it.

[photos via USA Today Images]