By Julie Robotham HEALTH EDITOR
FEWER than one-third of Australians are likely to seek immunisation against swine flu, experts fear, and the possibility that the new strain may be included in next year's regular winter flu shot could further undermine the program.
As the Government started to ship 21 million vaccine doses to doctors' surgeries this week, the head of clinical research at the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance at the University of Sydney, Robert Booy, said he hoped half the population would ask for the shot, in a best-case scenario.
But people were unconvinced about the safety of the vaccine and the need for it, Professor Booy said.
The vaccine is available free to everyone aged 10 or older through the $120 million program, but doctors and nurses may still charge for administering it.
Professor Booy urged people to be immunised, saying despite a decline in the number of new infections, a resurgence could happen at any time. ''February could be a worrying time,'' he said, ''because of people returning from their northern hemisphere holidays and sending their kids back to school.''
If the seasonal flu vaccine - which is changed each year to incorporate the most prominent circulating flu strains - included the swine flu strain, known as A(H1N1), some people might avoid seeking a separate swine flu shot now, Professor Booy said.
The World Health Organisation has provisionally recommended the swine strain be included in flu jabs for the next southern hemisphere winter, available from April.
But it has also sought advice on whether the swine flu component should be given separately. It will decide this month.
A spokeswoman said the Department of Health and Ageing would meet soon with WHO officials to determine the make-up of the winter flu vaccine
Vaccine maker CSL told the Herald it would be unable to include A(H1N1) in the winter flu vaccine because swine flu vaccine was already consuming so much manufacturing capacity.
A CSL spokeswoman, Rachel David, said the A(H1N1) strain yielded only three-quarters as much vaccine for the same production capacity, and this would make it impractical to include in the winter flu shot.
Victor Carey, the medical director of Sanofi Pasteur, which also supplies flu vaccine to the Federal Government, said the company would await WHO's final advice but warned that supply could be compromised ''if the particular strain chosen shows a low yield compared to others''.
A spokesman for the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners, Ronald McCoy, said distribution of pandemic swine flu vaccine in 10-dose vials meant doctors had to ensure several people attended on the same day, to avoid wastage. The entire vial must be discarded 24 hours after the first dose is drawn.
''A lot of healthy Australians aren't considering getting the vaccine,'' Dr McCoy said. ''It's a real challenge. Can we convince them?''
People should appreciate that flu could make them sick for six weeks and spread to vulnerable people such as pregnant women, he said.
Julie Leask, a social scientist at the University of Sydney who specialises in infectious diseases, said she estimated about 30 per cent of Australians would seek swine flu vaccination, based on US surveys and online polls here, and that many doses would go unused.
''There'll be a level of cynicism and concern about the perception of public waste,'' Dr Leask said.