By Zachary Gorchow
Executive Editor and Publisher
Posted: September 6, 2016 1:58 PM

It is too soon to know if one of the major storylines of the 2016 presidential race – college-educated white voters moving to Democrat Hillary Clinton and blue collar white voters without college degrees coalescing en masse behind Republican Donald Trump – portends a major political realignment.

But if that happens, and no matter who wins the presidency it likely will be a major factor through 2024 when that president (presuming s/he serves two terms) prepares to leave office, the ripple effect into legislative races across the country, for Congress and state legislatures, will be enormous.

In the short-term, it spells big trouble for Michigan Democrats, but in the mid- to long-term the effects could even out.

This year, the voters supporting the Republican nominee are largely white, older and did not complete a bachelor’s degree.

The bulk of the traditionally competitive seats for the Legislature and U.S. House in Michigan tend to be largely white, older and chock-full of voters who did not complete a bachelor’s degree. In the past, this was not a problem for Democrats in those areas because those older voters had come of age during the New Deal and the birth of organized labor. There were still white Democrats in those areas who supported gun rights and opposed abortion, so a pro-gun, antiabortion Democrat with connections to the union movement tended to be an ideal profile for such a district.

Increasingly, such Democrats are hard to find.

This is an especially serious problem in northern Michigan, an area where Democrats not only used to compete, but dominate. As recently as the 2009-10 term, Democrats held all four seats in the Upper Peninsula and three of the northern Lower Peninsula seats with at least some turf north of M-55. Today, Republicans hold all of those Lower Peninsula seats and two of the four in the Upper Peninsula.

There are three seats in this territory this year where Democrats hope to win, and while the Democrats have strong candidates in two of them, the overall atmospherics look overwhelmingly Republican. Mr. Trump looks poised to crush Ms. Clinton and provide major wind at the back of the GOP candidates.

And in looking at many of the other historically swing districts, the demographics are similar (the 56th District in Monroe County, the 57th District in Lenawee County, the 65th District in rural Jackson County, the 84th District in the Thumb, 85th District in Shiawassee and western Saginaw counties, the 97th District that runs through Evart, Clare, Gladwin and Standish and the 110th District in the western Upper Peninsula.

That’s 13 districts in total that have a history of competitiveness that, if recent trends hold, are clearly becoming more hospitable to Republicans and potentially slipping away from Democrats.

There’s a logical way for Democrats to counter what could become a very serious impediment to them winning a majority in the Michigan House. They need to capitalize on the emerging diversity and/or the disproportionately large number of voters with college degrees in several districts historically held by Republicans.

Five districts in metropolitan Detroit immediately come to mind – the 20th District in Plymouth and Northville, the 24th District in and around Mount Clemens, the 30th District in Sterling Heights and Shelby Township, the 39th District in West Bloomfield and Commerce Townships and the 41st District in Troy and Clawson.

And then they need to develop a bench of potential candidates in a place like the 38th District in southwest Oakland County, long a GOP bastion, but a place Republican operatives familiar with the area have noted the booming non-white population (29 percent as of the 2010 census in Novi, the major population base in the district) and the potential for a change in the district’s politics.

Long-term, this demographic trend, if it continues, could even make the 40th District in Birmingham and Bloomfield Township competitive, a once-unthinkable possibility for a seat where 20 years ago Republicans would take 70-plus percent of the vote. The same goes for the 45th District in Rochester/Rochester Hills.

Another district where demographics suggest an emerging opportunity for Democrats is the 61st District in southwest Kalamazoo County. The major population base in the district, Portage, has a large number of residents with at least a bachelor’s degree (40.2 percent) and is increasingly diverse (the white alone population fell from 91 percent in 2000 to 85 percent in 2010). Democrats took a shot at the seat in 2014 and are taking a long look at it again this year, but barring a Clinton tsunami they need a stronger pool of candidates to break through.

The 71st District in Eaton County is another one. Regardless of whether Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Potterville) wins re-election this year, the demographics are moving in the Democrats’ direction there. Theresa Abed was the first Democrat to win the seat since 1964 when she won it in 2012. Mr. Barrett defeated her in 2014, but her 2012 breakthrough for Democrats does not look like a fluke. The 99th District in Isabella and Midland counties is another seat to which Republicans have clung, but where the current trend spells trouble for the GOP. Democrats could well win it this year for the first time since the 1930s.

The problem for the Democrats is they are a bit farther away from scoring breakthroughs in all those suburban, increasingly diverse, more highly educated areas than Republicans are from developing an edge in the outstate, rural, mostly white blue collar areas. But if these patterns hold, the future playing field for control of the House – and eventually the state Senate and U.S. House – is going to look much different than it has for the past two decades.