The hole

dog-hole-modified

Tony runs a pawn shop in the wild burbs of metro Vancouver. “Pawn Stars,” he says, “was one of the best things that happened to us over the last few years. Our store is nothing like that (the one on the TV series) but the whole thing made pawns legitimate. Cool, even.”

But that’s not the reason Tony’s now a millionaire. That he attributes to debt. And real estate.

“It’s amazing the things we see. People basically live in these expensive houses worth god-knows-what, but they have no money. We see it every day when they bring stuff in so they can get over the bridge…”

Tony’s referring to the Port Mann bridge, connecting the burbs to Downtown Delusia. Electronic toll collection means people can drive across without paying, but later receive invoices by email or post. Once a bill passes $25 and has been outstanding for 90 days, drivers are unable to renew their license or buy car insurance until they find the money to pay. “That,” he says, “believe it or not, is when they bring in stuff to sell. So they can buy their damn insurance. It’s nuts. I love it.”

Maybe you’ve witnessed similar. Go door-knocking for a charity in an ‘upscale’ suburban hood in the GTA and see how many million-dollar houses are furnished inside with lawn chairs and TV trays, or have beater cars sitting in their cobblestone driveways. Without a doubt, Canadians en masse have been throwing everything they’ve got at a single asset, often ending up with a rich house, a bloated mortgage and an empty bank account.

“Some things,” Tony says, “I can’t believe myself. We loan money, besides buying things for cash. People will come in to give us $5 every week in interest on a $100 loan, because there’s no way they’re going to get an extra hundred bucks. So, we take it.”

Behaviour like this – buying houses we can’t afford with astonishing levels of household debt – is now such a serious issue that the international banking community is warning we may be pooched. Look at the chart below. It shows the percentage of new mortgages used to buy houses by people with a loan-to-income ratio of 450% or more. Check out Toronto, where we’re approaching the 40% mark.

over-450-ratio

Canadians’ appetite for debt is apparently bottomless. A scary story called globally this week by Bloomberg helped make that clear. A 10-year-long, house-horny real estate binge has created not only unaffordable prices, but given us debt that’s three times larger than the entire economy. The combined debt of governments, companies and households is now $4.4 trillion, of which mortgages alone are greater than $1.3 trillion. This is 288% of the nation’s GDP, making us more of a basket case than the US, which most Canadians think is the pinnacle of borrowing.

These days our government debt is actually under control (at least for now), but families are clearly out of control. Look how we stack up against the rest of the G-7 countries. Yikes.

g7-debt

Bloomberg

The Bank of International Settlements (sort of the central bank of central banks) says Canada is the only developed country “showing early signs of stress in its domestic banking system, amid unusually high credit growth.” Meanwhile too much debt means huge amounts of money must be directed to non-productive interest payments, diverted from investing and hurting growth. So, retail sales suck. The inflation rate is anemic. We’ll be lucky to hit 1% growth in 2016. Making it worse is the risk-averse nature of Canadians, who think financial markets are casinos and get aroused when some regional online religious ethnic credit union offers a 2% GIC.

Scariest of all? People believe houses are safe.

The feds disagree. It’s why lenders will soon be forced to share the risk on mortgage defaults. Also why Ottawa’s now desperately trying to guide the housing Hindenbubble in for a safe landing, instead of going all fireball. It’s why some big banks are cutting back on mortgage loans in the GTA or YVR, and why smart investors have twice as much US and international in their portfolios as they do maple.

Nobody has ever borrowed their way to prosperity. But if you wanna try, Tony’s your guy.

184 comments ↓

#1 Heather on 10.24.16 at 5:41 pm

“Scariest of all? People believe houses are safe.”

Well they keep burying bad news about housing, like warnings from our spy agencies. Everything’s fine, just don’t look into too hard.

https://betterdwelling.com/csis-warns-of-chinese-influence-on-canadian-real-estate-20-years-ago/

#2 Debtslavecreator on 10.24.16 at 5:44 pm

Living on the front lines of this too. Just amazing. Many in this country are living in la la land with false theories in how money is made
But this will end badly – not if just when
Methinks we have peaked and it’s all down here now
Tired of this fake prosperity

#3 common sense on 10.24.16 at 5:44 pm

“It’s too late baby now, it’s too late, though we really did try to ( think putting everything in your house would )
make it….something inside Canada has died and I can’t hide, and I just can’t fake it, oh noooo”

#4 daveyboy on 10.24.16 at 5:48 pm

Good luck Canada.

#5 Cash is King on 10.24.16 at 5:51 pm

“Nobody has ever borrowed their way to prosperity.”

Then why do finance minister’s of every province and the Fed’s continue to do it?

Is it different on a government level?

#6 Irent2016 on 10.24.16 at 5:57 pm

Garth sir, when and if the Hindenbubble soft lands, how will we know. Do the prices fall within a certain range or are there more factors. Anyways the question may be premature and there might be ni descent.

#7 Grey Dog on 10.24.16 at 5:59 pm

I do not understand the term “house rich” if the bank owns most of it.

#8 wallflower on 10.24.16 at 6:00 pm

This empty-house syndrome is fascinating. I saw many empty houses in Westside/Kerrisdale ‘hood in 2014 when I walked it daily for the month of October. These were unlived-in homes. (Gorgeous homes with property managers.)

I am remembering when my son attended a Markham Montessori where the majority of kids were Chinese Asian. We would go to their houses in Unionville for ‘play dates’ at the largest houses in the ‘hood, and they were empty as well, yet lived in. Once, I spent a half hour in one of them standing in the kitchen sort-of-talking with the parents (my Mandarin is bad). Standing. There was not a stick of furniture anywhere on the main floor but my son told me his friend had a mattress in his bedroom.
I left Markham. Not interested in that – where people value big houses but not lifestyle.

Clearly this house thing has become a contagious infection. Houses are vacant and so are the lifestyles.

What is it? What do we call it?

#9 Doug t on 10.24.16 at 6:02 pm

I don’t blame people so much as I do the financial institutions and government of this country. They set this game in motion years ago and now it’s ready to explode. the banks are like drug dealers – they’ll keep dealing you but the minute you can’t pay they cut you a new one. Get your house in order because this country has at least a decade of hurt ahead of it.

RATM

#10 Saint John proud on 10.24.16 at 6:02 pm

“Lending will partially dry up, or incur material surcharges, in rural, remote, high-unemployment or economically undiversified areas.
Insurance premiums may drop (one potential bright spot in all of this).”

From yesterday; this will crater most company towns in Canada, when the banks know how precarious the “company” is…

They see all the books; and they know undiversified… How many villages and towns are liked to one or two employers?!

#11 Millenial falcon on 10.24.16 at 6:03 pm

Good post garth. Can’t believe this housing bubble has lasted this long. Was looking on MLS yesterday just out of curiosity. Couldn’t belive how much people were asking for pices of crap houses in the Etobicoke area.

#12 David McDonald on 10.24.16 at 6:05 pm

Garth has been warning us about a weaker Canadian dollar for some time and sure enough the loonie has dropped into the 74 cent range this week. If Clinton wins and the Fed raises rates in December then look out below.

#13 MSM-Free Zone on 10.24.16 at 6:06 pm

“…..Nobody has ever borrowed their way to prosperity…….”
_________________________

Then again, from a layman’s point of view, how can printing trillions of dollars out of thin air through so-called ‘quantitative easing’ be a road to prosperity as well?

#14 not 1st on 10.24.16 at 6:08 pm

Nobody has ever borrowed their way to prosperity. But if you wanna try, Tony’s your guy.

Umm dont businesses and govts borrow all the time? Arent bonds and stock issue new debt?

Whole system is based on debt isnt it?

#15 TurnerNation on 10.24.16 at 6:10 pm

Guest bloggers must recant their rate hike ebulations.

#16 Here comes the crash on 10.24.16 at 6:11 pm

The numbers don’t lie only realtors and mortgage brokers do. IMAGINE if a third party opened up the books at CMHC and verified if the mortgages were even legit? We all know someone who got a mortgage by a broker who played with the numbers so they would qualify? Now that game of fraud is over and so is the bubble

#17 Polls R Phake on 10.24.16 at 6:18 pm

We are told the BC economy is booming yet people are selling stuff to buy insurance making pawn brokers millionaires.

Polls R Phake

#18 Rick Fast on 10.24.16 at 6:22 pm

Markham will go down by 50% in 5 years. The Value Village on Markham Road/14th is PACKED!

#19 mike from mtl on 10.24.16 at 6:24 pm

With only 15% in canadian equities I’m not too concerned but even the ‘safe’ stuff is starting to make me nervous. Our bonds are least still considered solid, for now. However the canadian preferreds portion could be another wreck given it’s mostly banking sector.

Also as bad it seems for our housing bubble here, oz and netherlands have it even worse – but that gets hardly mentioned.

#20 Sebee on 10.24.16 at 6:26 pm

Oh, good.
He stopped digging.
That’s step 1.
Good dog.

Not sure people are as smart.

#21 Penny Henny on 10.24.16 at 6:27 pm

what do you have against beaters?
I meant cars of course.

Still waiting for my $33.70

#22 Damifino on 10.24.16 at 6:27 pm

Anyone care to describe how a “safe landing” of the Vancouver Hindenburg might look?

I lack the imaginative capacity.

#23 Market man on 10.24.16 at 6:30 pm

Just in …… NO 15% foreigner TAX in
Ontario

#24 Capt. Serious on 10.24.16 at 6:30 pm

I don’t understand pouring all your money into your house. If you can’t keep some income free to enjoy life, what’s the point?

#25 Mark on 10.24.16 at 6:32 pm

Remember that consumer debt is essentially a ‘short’ on the currency, as borrowers sold currency, and bought consumer goods with the proceeds. We all know what happens when there’s a ‘short squeeze’, or shorts inevitably have to be closed out…

Interest rates probably will remain low (as the comatose economy needs the stimulus), but with so much consumer debt relative to the rest of the G7, its pretty obvious where the CAD$ is going as those short positions have to eventually be closed out. Creating huge demand for CAD$ in the process.

#26 Yikes on 10.24.16 at 6:33 pm

Scary stuff. It’s true Toronto is insane, the amount of mortgage debt people are carrying is astonishing. In addition, they want to appear rich so they lease cars they cannot afford and wear designer labels that they put on their credit cards. Maxed out Home equity lines, massive mortgages and maxed out credit cards.

It’s all a House of cards.

#27 Shameless Seamus on 10.24.16 at 6:37 pm

Confirmatory anecdote from YVR outer burbs: our local charity shop is emptying fast as donations drop and people buy clothes etc from there. At the same time our local community website is full of a secondary market (as they say in finance) of folks doing their own little e-bay, selling their stuff (and their friends’ stuff on commission) just to make ends meet. Final piece of the jigsaw; the local recycling centre – I’ll say that again, the local recycling centre – has empty shelves as folks scavenge the dumped electronics either to repair and sell or to use. Six months ago you could walk in there and get a decent TV or stereo or microwave for free. Not any more… trouble ahead. I completely confirm and agree with the story in today’s post.

#28 Freedom First on 10.24.16 at 6:38 pm

Thanks Tony, enjoyed your input. Good on you !

I feel the same way. For everything I own and everything everyone else does, I want to be paid. Freedom Is so underrated.

007
Freedom First
PHD/Freedomonics

#29 RentYVR on 10.24.16 at 6:40 pm

“The inflation rate is anemic” – that’s true but only if you don’t include shelter of course. My rent in YVR is up 20% yoy.

#30 Chaddywack on 10.24.16 at 6:40 pm

When I lived in Vancouver I was shocked to see how much it changed into such a vapid place full of arrogance. It’s tied directly to the rise of real estate prices. People who bought a house for $400k were now multi-millionaires on paper and it totally went to their heads. A lot of them started taking out HELOCs commensurate with their new “wealth.”

I used to work for the federal government and one thing that strikes me happened when a senior executive offered me a ride home after work one day (we lived in the same area of East Van–he owned I rented). The guy was pulling in about $150k a year and told me that he had to sell his house in East Van because he had been “using his house as an ATM for the last 10 years while prices were going up.” He sold and moved to Maple Ridge after retirement.

Nice enough guy, but the image is stuck in my head of an executive with a decent salary living well beyond his means.

I see this all the time in Vancouver that suddenly everyone is driving really expensive cars and eating out all the time…..no one ever seems to work there either. On a Tuesday afternoon places are packed!? I’ve never understood this, but I think Garth’s data here shows what has been happening.

Prices will drop, the tide will go out, and we’ll find the flotsam exposed.

#31 Bob dog on 10.24.16 at 6:46 pm

Why are Canadians taking any risk in the for profit banking cartel? If we take the risk, why not borrow from the bank of Canada which we own?

Bankers are fully aware of the facts you lay out here. Banks are the aggressor and we are the victims. Could it be possible our elected government is corrupt?

#32 pingispong on 10.24.16 at 6:46 pm

Go door-knocking for a charity in an ‘upscale’ suburban hood in the GTA and see how many million-dollar houses are furnished inside with lawn chairs and TV trays”

Some of my best memories were sitting on lawn chair at university eating cold pizza for breakfast while assessing the damage from the previous night’s beer pong marathon!

#33 pingispong on 10.24.16 at 6:48 pm

#12 David McDonald on 10.24.16 at 6:05 pm

Garth has been warning us about a weaker Canadian dollar for some time and sure enough the loonie has dropped into the 74 cent range this week. If Clinton wins and the Fed raises rates in December then look out below.”

Am guessing the latest drop was caused by the collapsed euro-trash trade deal….

#34 Fred on 10.24.16 at 6:50 pm

So what’s the historical home to income ratio?

#35 Faraan on 10.24.16 at 6:51 pm

First

#36 GsAmazon on 10.24.16 at 6:54 pm

This Halloween I am going out as the Vancouver Real Estate Market. Scary.

#37 Frustrated Kiwi on 10.24.16 at 6:56 pm

The fascinating thing to me is how global this is. Same going on here, Oz, China,… In news from China there is this:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-23/fake-divorce-is-path-to-riches-in-china-s-hot-real-estate-market
“The only thing I know is that buying property won’t turn out to be a loss,” said Cai, citing two decades of rising prices as proof. “From several thousand yuan a square meter to more than 100,000 yuan. Did it ever fall? Nope.”

#38 joblo on 10.24.16 at 6:58 pm

Housing debt, unfunded pensions, consumer debt,7 year auto debt……. :)

When do we get a Debt Jubilee?

#39 millenial905er on 10.24.16 at 6:59 pm

Sorry, these are probably daft questions but I legitimately don’t understand: How do people float a loan to income ratio of 450%? How is this even possible? Wouldn’t creditors put liens on homes? Wouldn’t you have to default?

I guess those are good questions to have. I am debt-phobic, and have no idea how that would work.

#40 Brian on 10.24.16 at 7:00 pm

Yup as rates go lower the amount people can borrow increases. If rates stay low 2-3% this is the new norm. There will be no crash or major decline with these low rates. Par for the course. May take a generation for things to revert to the mean.

#41 bdwy sktrn on 10.24.16 at 7:00 pm

percentage of new mortgages used to buy houses by people with a loan-to-income ratio of 450% or more.
——————–
with much higher prices and much lower incomes than toronto, why does vancouver have a lower number of bloated mtgs than the godless gta?

that extra money has got to be coming from somewhere.

or -was- coming from somewhere.

#42 Pete on 10.24.16 at 7:01 pm

Pawn shops are the love of my life. I let others go broke buying things new; then I come along and buy it at a pawn shop for a fraction of the cost. Let someone else shoulder the bulk of the burden is my ethos.
Similar to my approach on houses. I rent. Always have. I’m not going to go into debt and take on all the responsibilities / expenses of home ownership so that some fool with his whole net worth in real estate can retire as a millionaire. I’m staying out of the market. That means one more family somewhere will be eating cat food for the duration of their retirement. Tough.
As for mansions with card tables and patio chairs, I have seen that twice in Ottawa.

#43 Metaxa on 10.24.16 at 7:02 pm

I actually know a couple with the green plastic lawn chairs around the dining room table.
Big ass mortgage too…but its OK because “we are teachers and our pensions will cover that”

Imagine, having a teacher’s pension and using it to pay off the golf course house instead of, say, trips to Italy.

I got lucky and made a chunk when I was young but even if you don’t do that you sure as heck shouldn’t go out and purposefully make yourself unlucky.

#44 millenial905er on 10.24.16 at 7:02 pm

Also, is this how everyone is driving around in Lexus, Audi, Benz SUVs? I drive around legitimately wondering how so many people can afford these cars. Surely not everyone is that rich… or maybe they are in the 905?

#45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.24.16 at 7:09 pm

I was at Canadian Tire in Burnaby a few months ago and noticed lay away plans for $40 Toasters…….I asked one of the staff ” Seriously? people buy toasters on credit?”
She laughed and said, ” I’ve seen people buy a $10 extention cord on payment terms…….”

Insanity that will not end well.

#46 Victoria - the original on 10.24.16 at 7:15 pm

I have posted this before but our RE agent went over to Vancouver to do volunteer work in a food bank for a charity he belongs to. He said he was convinced many of the people were middle class homeowners that were having trouble making ends meet.

I mentioned this the other day that people here in Victoria are hoping that Victoria will become the next RE mecca as people from Vancouver will “discover” Victoria and everyone will move here. Spoke to one guy – 60 years old – everything he has is in RE and he is hoping his house will triple – or more – in value.He is counting on huge appreciation for retirement. Once the Vancouverites catch on …..to Victoria that is.

#47 rainclouds on 10.24.16 at 7:22 pm

Tony apparently deals with the same imbeciles that use their debit card to buy a bag of chips at 7-11.

This is for The Broadway Pumper.

http://vancitycondoguide.com/buyer-demand-continues-slow-october/

Link is also a realtor. He also has access to MLS.
Houses Dead.
Condos have a heartbeat but not for long……..

Enjoy dining on Crow

#48 Terrence on 10.24.16 at 7:25 pm

Didnt u hear? Poloz is goin 2 lower the intrest rate mabey NIRP or ZIRP? Who knows! I see home prices soaring very close 2 the sun for another year or two then the wax wings melt & the inevitable crash down 2 earth! Thanx Garth i luv ur blog , its very informative & u have factual ststs 2 back you! Although timing is very tough to nail down.

#49 I don't know! on 10.24.16 at 7:29 pm

“Nobody has ever borrowed their way to prosperity. But if you wanna try, Tony’s your guy.” – Garth

———————————————————–

Garth, are you kidding? Practically every wealthy person has used credit effectively to get rich.

#50 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.24.16 at 7:30 pm

@#9 Doug t
“Get your house in order …..”
*******************************************

I dont have a house .
I currently rent.
Zero debt.

Haiku over

Ya dont need to Rage Against The Machine….just beat it at it’s own game.
I always pay the credit cards and bills on time and before the Shylock interest rates start to latch on to me like a starved zombie leech.

Its that easy.

Sold 4 years ago and invested the juicy profit into a balanced and diversified portfolio(thanks Garth).
Im sitting pretty well.
Hoping to buy a small, affordable place in the next few years, mortgage free or have a mortgage payment considerably less than my rent.
Retire a few years after that.
Putter, fiddle and fart(natch) around the place using sweat equity to build up its value for the inevitable sale when I have to go to that big suppository in the sky……….
Glory Hallelujah!
My Thirsty Underwear has been changed by a nurses aid

#51 Ronaldo on 10.24.16 at 7:32 pm

Tony – Aug. 13/16

”I’m shorting Teck Corporation at the end of this September. I’ll be buying back the shares at 5 dollars Canadian at the end of January 2017 or at the start of February 2017.”
—————————————————————-
Hey Tony, how’s that working out for you? I see that the stock is up 15.65% since you shorted. Still think it’s going to $5.00 in the new year? I’m betting $30.00.

#52 Pete on 10.24.16 at 7:32 pm

#14 not 1st said “Umm dont businesses and govts borrow all the time? Arent bonds and stock issue new debt? Whole system is based on debt isn’t it?”
Yeah that’s right. That is why there can be no true prosperity. The money is all fake. One can only acquire supposed wealth for themselves by passing even greater debt along to the next fool.
“Governments borrow”; that would be an oxymoron except for the fact that it’s true. The banks create all ‘money’ out of thin air as a debt bearing/interest bearing certificate. trouble is that no one can repay the debt and the interest without having more ‘money’ created with which to repay it. You can’t borrow your way to prosperity. But you’ll never hear a politician talk of monetary system reform. That’s simply not allowed to be discussed.

#53 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.24.16 at 7:37 pm

@#35 Faraan
“First”
******************************************
35 !?!? 35 ??????????
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

As they say in Beijing
“You big loooooos-aaaaaah”

#54 Smoking Man on 10.24.16 at 7:37 pm

Well got to feel good, flip flops made it to Oct 24th.
Bring on global warming.

Tony what can I get for em at the pawn shop? Brand is quick silver, the tread completely gone. If they were tires you’ll call em slicks. Permanent indents were toes go..

#55 S.Bby on 10.24.16 at 7:38 pm

Houses are safe? A 20% drop so far this year with another 20% decline on the way next year. Not safe.

#56 Borrowed on 10.24.16 at 7:39 pm

“Nobody has ever borrowed their way to prosperity.”

AT&T borrows 40 billion dollars to purchase Time-Warner for 80 billion.

#57 Blacksheep on 10.24.16 at 7:42 pm

Seems like the disclosure of Hillary & the DNC gangs dirty deeds have been saved for the closing days of the election for maximum impact on anyone paying attention.

Unless leakers are out of Intel (highly unlikely) I think she may just become unelectable.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-24/project-veritas-video-3

Of course….the Electoral College may ram her down the throats of the citizenry, but they’re not going to be very happy about it. Just watch what happens, if that occurs…..

#58 yup on 10.24.16 at 7:48 pm

In a “booming” economy you would think that businesses would be enjoying the ride but lots of commercial “For Lease” signs everywhere in Vancouver.

Probably a combination of businesses that rely on discretionary income to survive not making it and/or building owners who need to charge over the moon rates to pay off their mortgages?

#17 Polls R Phake on 10.24.16 at 6:18 pm

We are told the BC economy is booming yet people are selling stuff to buy insurance making pawn brokers millionaires.

Polls R Phake

#59 common sense on 10.24.16 at 7:51 pm

#42 Pete

Where are these pawn shops that you speak of?

The few I have been in charge outrageous prices for basically crap that luckily I don’t want or need but was curious just to see the process.

Rates again just cannot rise…far toooooooooooo much debt worldwide…

Finally, drive in any town outside a city anywhere after 6pm and notice how quiet the streets are. Anywhere.

Just. No. Disposable Cash for 90% of the masses.

#60 IM in C on 10.24.16 at 7:52 pm

Garth ..this isn’t news. 35 years ago, my brother was an assistant bank manager. He was surprised how many outwardly successful people were, in reality, up to their nostrils in debt and desperately treading water.

#61 SixFootSix on 10.24.16 at 7:57 pm

We needed to have our roof done this past summer and had the work done by a long time reputable roofing company in the region of Halton Ontario. When the work was completed the estimator/crew foreman came to inspect the job, explain my warranty and collect payment. When we got to talking he told me how this past summer he was down to 2 roofing crews from 5 last year. He told me how he had seen so many houses with roofs totally shot, and not getting the necessary repairs done, yet sitting in the interlock driveways, of these same houses, were Audis and Mercedes Benz’s.

Garth, I know there is a clear metaphor here [I will avoid the obvious puns], but the story runs consistent with some of the themes of your blog. All of them not good…

#62 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.24.16 at 8:01 pm

Uh Oh.
Home ownership is now “passe” in Vancouver.

http://thetyee.ca/News/2016/10/24/Dream-Home-Prof-You-Will-Be-Happier/

I’m sure the “trend-oids” will be all over this.
“You OWN your home!”
“How 2016!”
“Everyone at this party RENTS! Its so environmentally appropriate”

#63 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.24.16 at 8:02 pm

why smart investors have twice as much US and international in their portfolios as they do maple

deficits as far as the eye can see!

down goes the Canadian economy

down goes the CAD$!

#64 Chopper Dude on 10.24.16 at 8:08 pm

Sold back in April…. Money has been making dividends and we are stress free. So happy now. Garth, I am going to kiss you on the mouth if we ever meet! Get ready!!

Just back from a nice trip to Europe. And now? We are going to go hunker down up at the cabin with a few cases of Chateau Neuf de Pape and my box of Cohibas until the shitshow down south settles.

My call? (and you heard it here first), Trump assassinated, Hillary indicted, Obama declares Marshall Law and stays in power. What a Charlie Foxtrot!

#65 The Truth on 10.24.16 at 8:13 pm

#1 Heather on 10.24.16 at 5:41 pm
“Scariest of all? People believe houses are safe.”

Well they keep burying bad news about housing, like warnings from our spy agencies. Everything’s fine, just don’t look into too hard.

https://betterdwelling.com/csis-warns-of-chinese-influence-on-canadian-real-estate-20-years-ago/

And that folks pretty much summarizes our real estate market in full.
Fools are those who waited on the sidelines just to see their dream slip away while getting rent increase and eviction notices…Thanks Garth.

#66 maxx on 10.24.16 at 8:13 pm

Cute pic…Vertical Canine Cooling Unit. All that’s missing is some Fangria!
Sorry dawgs, with all of this election angst, I couldn’t avoid the left turn at Albuquerque.

#67 broader mind on 10.24.16 at 8:15 pm

Does anybody have a chart explaining the new color codes CMHC is using. In case they issue a Code Green and it means time to buy…. I don’t want to miss out.

#68 Andrew Woburn on 10.24.16 at 8:16 pm

#45 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.24.16 at 7:09 pm
I was at Canadian Tire in Burnaby a few months ago and noticed lay away plans for $40 Toasters…….I asked one of the staff ” Seriously? people buy toasters on credit?”
=================

“People buy toasters on credit”. Not exactly. Layaway means you get the goods when your prepayments equal the purchase price.

Welcome back to the Fifties. This is how ordinary people used to buy things then.

#69 betamax on 10.24.16 at 8:17 pm

Oh, the humanity!

Garth: “see how many million-dollar houses are furnished inside with lawn chairs and TV trays, or have beater cars sitting in their cobblestone driveways”

Almost no one in Vancouver has a beater car these days, thanks to 7-year car loans. Welcome to the boomtown!

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.24.16 at 8:20 pm

@#56 Borrowed
“AT&T borrows 40 billion dollars to purchase Time-Warner for 80 billion.”
********************************************
Statistically.
Most mega mergers fail. The purchasing company sells off the parts of the company that “Gordon Gecko” once so eloquently put it, are “dogs with fleas”.
Lets see how At&T stock is doing in 12 months and 24 months….my guess is…..down.

#71 Dave on 10.24.16 at 8:22 pm

In 2008 (at the age of 28) I had a total networth of $40,000. I put it all towards a down-payment on a triplex in TO. Bought and sold a couple other houses and fast forward to today….I have a networth of a little over $1.4M.

It’s staggering to think about the amount of money I have made by taking on a huge amount of debt and riding this real estate market. It truly has been an epic run.

Disclaimer: not all 1.4M is from real estate. I have also saved a high percentage of my income from a good paying job. But I would estimate at least 900k-1.1M is from real estate appreciation.

True Story of my life networth. 40K to 1.4M in 8 years.

#72 Andrew Woburn on 10.24.16 at 8:23 pm

Ugly as it sounds for Canada, we probably wouldn’t want to trade places with Saudi Arabia.

Like us there are about 30 million people in Saudi. About half of them are under age 25. There aren’t a lot of jobs and state revenues have plunged. Wrenching social/economic change is upon them and who knows what will follow. As we are overly fond of saying on this blog, this is unlikely to end well. If the Americans are tiptoeing away from Riyadh, it only looks like common sense.

“Two Saudi Arabia’s senior officials have warned that further cuts are needed to the kingdom’s swollen public sector otherwise the country faces bankruptcy in three years.

Khaled Al Araj, the civil service minister, told a TV debate on Saudi TV network MBC that civil servants in the kingdom barely put in one hour a day in the office and have little incentive to work.

The kingdom’s public sector, which employs more than 70 percent of the workforce, is extremely unproductive and its employees have a poor work ethic, the UK’s Times newspaper quoted him as saying.”

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/saudi-official-warns-over-bankruptcy-in-three-four-years–649902.html

“Saudi Arabia, the oil kingdom, has never been a normal state. Named after Ibn Saud, the ancestor of the ruling family, the founder of the modern Saudi dynasty, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was run on an unwritten social contract between the ruling family and its subjects. The state ensured a cradle-to-grave social welfare system; in exchange, the population was expected to be loyal, without having a representative system.

This social contract is now under threat. Facing persistently low oil prices, Saudi Arabia’s almost one-product economy is faced with immense challenges. Last year, Riyadh ran an unprecedented budget deficit of $98-billion (U.S.). This year, the deficit forecast is $87-billion. Its foreign-exchange reserve base is dwindling – from a peak of $737-billion in August, 2014, to $555-billion in August, 2016.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/why-saudi-arabias-social-contract-is-under-threat/article32447465/

#73 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.24.16 at 8:25 pm

As I’ve said before, Wynne will not implement a tax on foreign homebuyers

http://www.bnn.ca/ontario-will-not-follow-b-c-s-tax-on-foreign-homebuyers-premier-wynne-says-1.591238

#74 Brian on 10.24.16 at 8:32 pm

Yup the new mortgage tester rate rules are just paving the way for BOC to lower rates again.

#75 bdwy sktrn on 10.24.16 at 8:33 pm

#47 rainclouds on 10.24.16 at 7:22 pm
Tony apparently deals with the same imbeciles that use their debit card to buy a bag of chips at 7-11.
—————–
tapping a card is by far the fastest option , does not hold up the line like the fools counting their change at the till, provides a permanent record of where all one’s spending goes and gives 2% cash back(credit card). then set up a finance tracker to automatically categorize all expenses. we have about 40 categories going back many years. i can see exactly how much i spent on jd and rentals any month back to 2010. i do nothing but flash my card for those chips, all the rest happens by itself. tap limit is 200 at costco not that that helps.

you like wasting time standing around waiting for change and holding up the line?
///////////

Link is also a realtor. He also has access to MLS.
Houses Dead.
……
of course sales are almost completely frozen up, making it even more striking that just the handful that got through around here were all over asking price.

i’m still waiting to buy a few cheap houses, but in real life, not the fantasy many here inhabit, they are not really getting much cheaper around here.

crappy overpriced specials that were asking 1.7m in the spring are still asking exactly 1.7m. still waiting….

i too, pray for a 70% crash so i can buy the ones on either side of me.

#76 NotAGreaterFool on 10.24.16 at 8:34 pm

Open for business to foreigners Wynne says.

http://www.bnn.ca/ontario-will-not-follow-b-c-s-tax-on-foreign-homebuyers-premier-wynne-says-1.591238

Ontario will not follow B.C.’s tax on foreign homebuyers, Premier Wynne says

#77 Bram on 10.24.16 at 8:35 pm

“…..Nobody has ever borrowed their way to prosperity…….”

Tell that to the borrower that took a 90% mortgage on a YVR house in 2000 and sold it 15 yrs later.

Not the norm, but it does happen: borrowing your way to multi-millionaire status.

Bram

#78 bdwy sktrn on 10.24.16 at 8:40 pm

#71 Dave on 10.24.16 at 8:22 pm
In 2008 (at the age of 28) I had a total networth of $40,000
———————-
Another lying scumbag pumping realtor!!!! BAD BAD BAD!

(there VREU, saved you the work there)

For real – dave – good going – some times you get lucky. but if you don’t take a swing it’s impossible to get a hit.

#79 bigtowne on 10.24.16 at 8:41 pm

Nordstrom has opened a new dept. store in Yorkdale and the whole mall was packed. Kitty corner to Nordstrom is the Canada Goose store where your basic bomber jacket runs near $900 and your 3/4 parka hits $1,500. The line up for Canada Goose was deep as people waited to get in the store.

I felt so blessed that my bomber jacket which I had purchased for $10 at Goodwill three years back looked pretty much like the ones in the Canada Goose window and it would be impossible to guess how much I paid for my bomber.

I hate credit card debt so I am happy to be obsessive compulsive about my bargain successes.

#80 ulsterman on 10.24.16 at 8:53 pm

The North Burnaby (Lower Mainland) market in detahced has seized up:

R2117325 is in my area and was originally listed at 1,499,000. I was pleased to see it reduced to 1,425, 000. Now to my joy i see it at 1,298,000. That’s a not-insignificant 13% decline.

#81 NoName on 10.24.16 at 8:56 pm

#44 millenial905er on 10.24.16 at 7:02 pm

dodge durango 42395 base
mercedes GLC 45150 base

which one would you chose?

#82 Renter's Revenge! on 10.24.16 at 8:57 pm

No debt, no cry

#83 Dirty debtor on 10.24.16 at 8:58 pm

Big Business Tony!

BBT!

#84 Trojan House on 10.24.16 at 8:58 pm

#5 Cash is King on 10.24.16 at 5:51 pm

Yes it is different. First, they never have any intention of paying it back.

Second, it buys votes.

#85 Randy on 10.24.16 at 9:00 pm

Save your money. There will be lots of great deals after 2017.

#86 bdwy sktrn on 10.24.16 at 9:02 pm

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17481199/1956-GRAVELEY-STREET-Vancouver-British-Columbia-V5L3B4

$1,375,000
————————–
this is the only local example i can find of softening

lot value only. even though it is only one house separated from very busy 1st ave (nonstop traffic noise) the lot would have got 1.45 not long ago.

not sold for 2 weeks now.

i suspect the vendor has turned down offers so far and that he will not sell for much under 1.5.

i will post selling price when it goes.

#87 bdwy sktrn on 10.24.16 at 9:08 pm

#81 NoName on 10.24.16 at 8:56 pm
#44 millenial905er on 10.24.16 at 7:02 pm

dodge durango 42395 base
mercedes GLC 45150 base

which one would you chose?

————————
if someone else was paying i’d choose:
2016 GMC SIERRA 2500 DENALI HD
STARTING MSRP:
$73,265

sadly, i’m paying so it’s a :1995 gmc jimmy craigslist all in price $2500 (the first one i bought new for 36k- young and dumb)

#88 hawk on 10.24.16 at 9:13 pm

The elite of the world have figured out a creative way of keeping the masses under their thumb. Instead of the the class based feudalism of the middle ages, the debt financed economy will ensure that modern day serfs will keep adhering to their over lords.

The problem is that it screws up things for the few responsible people in the middle class, who don’t have debt but still suffer nonetheless because of unjustifiable increases in prices of essential goods.

In the meantime of course …………bye bye former public assets thanks to Kathleen Wyne

#89 hawk on 10.24.16 at 9:15 pm

#5 Cash is King on 10.24.16 at 5:51 pm
“Nobody has ever borrowed their way to prosperity.”

Then why do finance minister’s of every province and the Fed’s continue to do it?

Is it different on a government level?

================

Seriously???

They do this naturally because they can borrow from the future by paying only the interest on their loans and giving ever more entitlements to their employees and voter banks.

Why would they care about the generations that inherit the debt………..they’ll be long gone.

#90 Mr Reality on 10.24.16 at 9:16 pm

The big question Garth is within the context of Canadian real estate reverting back to the mean, what will the mean actually end being? I think you mentioned in a post years ago that the mean historical rate for mortgages was in the ball park of 6.8%? Don’t quote me.

Given the outright explosion of house prices induced by cheap debt accumulation people are going to be horrified when they feel the impact of negative equity.

Something tells me the end result of mean reversion of this market writ large will be very very surprising for many people.

Deleveraging is a bitch, except for people like me preparing to buy at the bottom.

Mr R

#91 Fred Schafer on 10.24.16 at 9:17 pm

quote from Garth Turner “…These days our government debt is actually under control (at least for now)”

Garth, I’m afraid you’re wrong. Forget % of GDP and all the other nonsense numbers the government elite spout. Do you know how much the federal and Ontario debt is, today. What the debt is in the municipality you live in and what is the debt of the underfunded pension plans and other liabilities not yet on the books. If you actually add up these debts and look at how many taxpayers actually pay most of the taxes, where is the money going to come from to balance the budgets never mind pay down the debts. There are not 3 different taxpayers. It’s the same taxpayer that has to pay the Federal, bankrupt Ontario and Municipal debt.

If you take an hour or two to actually analyze the numbers you would know we are well beyond saving in any conventional sense. Go back and review what it took Paul Martin and Jean Chretien to balance the books in the 1990’s. I’m no Liberal, but I respect what Paul Martin accomplished with great difficulty and opposition from every corner. They were just getting started when Stephen Harper took Canada back to the financial stone age. Trudeau the elder started this in the early 1970’s and Trudeau the younger will finish it when he finally puts us in our financial grave.

#92 45north on 10.24.16 at 9:19 pm

Chaddywack: talking about a guy working for the Federal Government: The guy was pulling in about $150k a year and told me that he had to sell his house in East Van because he had been “using his house as an ATM for the last 10 years while prices were going up.” He sold and moved to Maple Ridge after retirement.

“the trick you said was never play the game too long”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjDpKeiYxOU

Ross Kay this week said that prices have declined 19% might as well say 20%. In Vancouver and BC as a whole. Thinking about a whole mess of people: they played the game too long.

#93 IHCTD9 on 10.24.16 at 9:22 pm

It is starting to look like the convergence is beginning to tighten. Bad economy, bad job market, bad wages, massive everywhere you look, and now clouds forming over the bubbly Canadian RE markets.

I think many urbanites are going to get a harsh lesson on how keeping up with the joneses doesn’t pay.

What does pay is nuking that reasonably sized mortgage quick, working and investing for your future, a little at a time over decades, staying out of consumer debt – no matter what, ignoring what others are doing and taking care of your own business.

If you can do the above, the prize is watching from the sidelines when the SHTF, and scooping the deals after the dust settles.

#94 mwald on 10.24.16 at 9:29 pm

You’re richer than you think. thanks Scotia bank

#95 Smoking Man on 10.24.16 at 9:30 pm

What the heck.

Did Micheal Moore just indorse Trump?

https://youtu.be/pADHLsECWxY

The world is getting strange..

#96 Walter Safety on 10.24.16 at 9:35 pm

Pawn Shops!!! Thieves cleaned out my shed this year for about $1300 in home and garden tools.So I went to the local pawnshop to look for my stuff. The place looked like a DeWalt superstore. Next time I buy pink tools only.
My John Deere was double chained and blocked they damaged it but didn’t get it.
The guy that did it got caught for a serious crime so they rolled it all into one sentence – two years less a day . Guess they went easy on him cause he was out on parole when he did the crime spree.
Pawn shops , another middleman adding to GDP.

#97 S.Bby on 10.24.16 at 9:59 pm

#80 ulsterman

Don’t tell Bdwy Sktrn.
He thinks prices are going up in Burnaby. LOL.

#98 Mark on 10.24.16 at 10:05 pm

“deficits as far as the eye can see!”

Canada debt outstanding = $641B September, 2015
Canada debt outstanding = $664B September, 2016

So Canada, under Trudeau, ran a $23B deficit YoY.

Contrast this with the United States:

US debt outstanding = $19.74T Current
US debt outstanding = $18.150T September, 2015

New debt = $1.6T

Using the traditional 1:10 ratio between the Canadian and the US economies, its easy to see that the USA is piling on debt at a rate dramatically faster than that of Canada. Trudeau’s record over the past year, in actual fact, is better than Harper’s average of ~$26B of new debt per year.

Since Canada is taking on only roughly 1/7th (or even less if you translate everything back to USD$) of the debt of the United States (with slightly higher interest rates in Canada no less), it logically follows that Canada’s record on debt management is dramatically better. This will eventually reflect itself in the currency.

#99 Millennial905er on 10.24.16 at 10:06 pm

#81 NoName on 10.24.16 at 8:56 pm
#44 millenial905er on 10.24.16 at 7:02 pm

dodge durango 42395 base
mercedes GLC 45150 base

which one would you chose?

————————

Ugh, neither! Esp not Dodge though. Eck. Not a car person, but isn’t upkeep on luxury vehicles an arm and a leg? I prefer not to have my oil change to cost half a car payment, thanks.

Love my used Toyota.

—–+++++

As an aside, spoke to the hubs about the 450% ratio, he reminded me of all those students in Van “earning” 25k/yr, living in houses that cost 2 mil. Lots of underground, unreported $$$. Plug your ears Garth, I know it’s not your favorite topic. I suppose there are also all those lucky brats from my generation being gifted hundreds of thousands from the bank of mom n pop.

#100 Efficient on 10.24.16 at 10:13 pm

I don’t see the lawn chair furniture scenario where I live. Then again I don’t get invited to people’s houses and have no friends.

#101 S.Bby on 10.24.16 at 10:15 pm

Here’s some local Burnaby softening:

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/17234565/5427-SPRUCE-STREET-Burnaby-British-Columbia-V5G1Y7

$1,288,000 and check out the DoM.
Six months ago this would have sold right away with multiple offers for $1.6+ easily. Won’t get near asking now.

#102 Ret on 10.24.16 at 10:20 pm

Government debt is under control as long as interest rates stay under 2%. Hey, let’s stress test all that debt at 5%. Now what does the picture look like?

#103 NEVER GIVE UP on 10.24.16 at 10:26 pm

#1 Heather on 10.24.16 at 5:41 pm
“Scariest of all? People believe houses are safe.”

Well they keep burying bad news about housing, like warnings from our spy agencies. Everything’s fine, just don’t look into too hard.

https://betterdwelling.com/csis-warns-of-chinese-influence-on-canadian-real-estate-20-years-ago/
———————————————————
Like I said before.
Canadians are satiated and too weak to even care.
Our Governments are soft touch and would not notice if the Chinese Government is hacking into their computers. Just as long as they can have an entourage to Europe along with $800.00 a night hotels.

Anyone who does not believe there are 5000 Chinese spies living in Canada is as delusional as the next buyer of a 3 million buck home in YVR!

#104 Suede on 10.24.16 at 10:28 pm

Tony,

Sounds like you’re in a good business! How can I buy shares of this pawn shop when it IPO’s??

I need a lawnmower for my new house, do you have any? Also, it has to be gas powered because my neighbour drives a prius.

Same with the weed eater…

#105 NoName on 10.24.16 at 10:32 pm

#72 Andrew Woburn on 10.24.16 at 8:23 pm

on Sunday i was talking with my friend regarding sa and sale of Aramco. that is a one and only thing that they can sell there is nothing else.
and for good ipo they will need oil price to be as high as they can be…
i am not big on conspiracy but i wonder why all of the sudden increase in attack on Nigerian pipelines. lets not forget nigeria is biggest oil producer in Africa 2.4 barrels a day in 2014 and now down to 1.6 per day
google who is fighting who in Nigeria.

so is it a coincidence???

#106 economictsunami on 10.24.16 at 10:39 pm

When you consider that wealth is built;

not “created” nor conjured solely by a never ending parade of rate cuts and their cascading distortions.

But so called wealth creation does afford one the ‘opportunity’ to use their assets as a ‘wealth’ extracting ATM.

Low rates, just aren’t the magical elixir they once were…

#107 NEVER GIVE UP on 10.24.16 at 10:40 pm

#96 Walter Safety on 10.24.16 at 9:35 pm
Pawn Shops!!! Thieves cleaned out my shed this year for about $1300 in home and garden tools.
The guy that did it got caught for a serious crime so they rolled it all into one sentence – two years less a day .
————————————————————-
Our justice system has a few flaws…
My bike was stolen from a mall location 8 years ago.
The cops found it and asked me to send a letterhead identifying myself and what happened and where so they could prosecute.
I did so.

I got my bike back and parked it in my back yard. It was not yet ride-able because tires were flat etc.

A few months later the perp who stole it in the first place rolled up to my home in a stolen car and walked to my back yard and took it again and loaded it into the truck of the stolen car.

All this in plain daylight while my wife and teenage son were watching him from the porch while on the phone to the police. The guy was not in a hurry either!

Needless to say I will never help the police again with a prosecution.

The criminals have access to the names and addresses of the accusers.

I said I was not an accuser, the crown was.

Anyway that is how they know. Through their own lawyers who have to hand over the files when requested to do so.

I was later a witness to a jewelry store robbery at Lougheed mall in Burnaby. Crown prosecutor promised anonymity until near the court date when I pinned them down to put it in writing and they were lying all the time to me.
They cannot by law keep anonymity to a witness in my case anyway.
So I refused to testify. The prosecutor threatened to subpoena me and force me to testify and I told them to go ahead and try because I would never help those liars.
They caved and gave up on me.

#108 joe has rental properties on 10.24.16 at 10:41 pm

this blog would be the best place to put up ads for rental properties if gartho would allow it haha.

#109 Here comes the crash on 10.24.16 at 10:47 pm

73 WalMark of Sadkatoon on

It doesn’t matter if they don’t implimented the 15% foreign tax since it’s not foreigners who is driving up the prices. It’s cheap and easy credit but I’m sure you Realtors know that.

#110 NEVER GIVE UP on 10.24.16 at 10:47 pm

#101 S.Bby on 10.24.16 at 10:15 pm
How do you find the Dom?
The realtor.ca website does not show it does it?

#111 M&A on 10.24.16 at 10:53 pm

#70 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.24.16 at 8:20 pm
@#56 Borrowed
“AT&T borrows 40 billion dollars to purchase Time-Warner for 80 billion.”
********************************************
Statistically.
Most mega mergers fail. The purchasing company sells off the parts of the company that “Gordon Gecko” once so eloquently put it, are “dogs with fleas”.
Lets see how At&T stock is doing in 12 months and 24 months….my guess is…..down.

—-

M&A guys on Wall Street and Bay Street ride the elevators differently from you.

Guess, who’s net worth is higher?

#112 The Wet Coast on 10.24.16 at 10:53 pm

I suggest folks pull up Zolo. Filter for single family homes in Burnaby or Coquitlam. Then scroll through the listings and look at the inside of the house. Really surprising how many are empty and look like they were recently renovated. After you do it for a while you can start to pick out the ones that are likely empty and renovated. If the folks that own these homes start to panic it will get rough.

#113 Econsensus on 10.24.16 at 10:53 pm

#95 Smoking Man

Check out this video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41eOYyjSQwk

Micheal Moore praises Julian Assange. He doesn’t mention Hillary in the video, but he definitely implicates her. Guilty by association

#114 Johnny Utah on 10.24.16 at 11:03 pm

New Listing in Toronto – few hours ago

$129,000,000, yes $129,000,000

Sidney Belsey Crescent

#115 NoName on 10.24.16 at 11:04 pm

interesting read

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-18/batteries-may-trip-death-spiral-in-3-4-trillion-credit-market

#116 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.24.16 at 11:13 pm


Did Micheal Moore just indorse Trump?

https://youtu.be/pADHLsECWxY

The world is getting strange..

Not too strange.

I suspected as much after he penned this:
http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/

#117 pawn shop tony on 10.24.16 at 11:21 pm

Started the shop 2008
Gold first spike over 1000 bucks.

Equaled big business. Pawn stars helped in 2009.

But what brought the “new level of big business” to the shop was debt load on every sole owning a home. New car. And of course full furnished house.

What use to take 20 years to achieve now happens for many due to loose credit 3-6 months. Its all built with no back bone or back up cash. And thats were we fall in.

I had to sell my shop three weeks ago to remove myself from how truly depressing this society of entitlement debt filled idiotspeople. Seeing every become bottom feeders is a sad thing. I saw it all over 8 years working in the most dynamic style of business. First i loved it. Then i did it for the money. Then i had enough. Sole sucking seeing so many with so much. But have all debt and no money. Sad how people have become payment slaves. Things are going to be a slow bleed out.

Lie. Cheat. Steal. Then retire.

#118 Rockylal on 10.24.16 at 11:25 pm

Renting in Mississauga. House is worth $1M. Rent $2700 a month. Rent vs own ratio of 30. According to Garth I’m laughing all the way to the bank. I work in Markham so I’m looking to move, I found a monster home to rent for $2800 per month, home is worth $1.8M!!! Rent vs own ratio of 53!!! Why would you ever buy or own this house???

#119 Canadian Moose on 10.24.16 at 11:31 pm

Looks like Fido was digging himself out of debt. This country needs to learn from Fido. It’s gonna be a long haul.

#120 Jon B on 10.24.16 at 11:42 pm

Houses are at record high prices – check
Personal indebtedness is at an all time high – check
Few people have savings while concentrating nearly everything in RE – check

So when will we have a blog post discussing the opportunities that the above factors will ultimately lead to? I doubt it’ll be all sunshine and ponies for much longer.

#121 domain on 10.25.16 at 12:06 am

Nice post.

Kudos to Carney, he currently presides over #2 most indebted nation after inflating Canada to #1 before bailing. Nice work Carney, you one-trick pony…

#122 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.25.16 at 12:16 am

@#68 Mr Woah Burn

Sorry. Maybe those were the “terms” back in 1950 but at Cambodian Tire now-a days…..
It’s …..finance……a……toaster no payments til 2017.

#123 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.25.16 at 12:31 am

@#111M&A

While I wont argue that most M&A geeks can ingest and shat out a financial statement without working up much more than a minor sweat after food poisoning from eating another late night take out meal from Taco Bell …….

Apparently reading and comprehension ISNT your strong point.

I’m not talking about Merger and Aquisition leaches like you that produce zero and create zero but get a (in this case) multi billion dollar comission to introduce the idiots at AT&T to the greedy idiots (CEO’s) at Time Warner who will reap huge bonuses whether this merger “works” or not.

What I was talking about is 12 months or 24 months down the raod when this massive financial “roll of the dice” turns into a statistically proven “loser deal” for the current shareholders…..
But you decided to change the subject and brag about how much the M&A geniuses “earn” and the smelly elevators they ride instead of the fiduciary duty of the CEO’s.
Well.
Times are A-changin’ and if the barbarians at the gate that want a Trump victory are any indication…….

Your smug days are soon to legislated out of profitable existance.

Enjoy the elevator ride back down to earth.
You pompous fool.

#124 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.25.16 at 12:50 am

@#75 broadway Skytrain

Yeah. Tap and go is SOOOOOOOO much faster when EEEdiots like you stand there and order a….

“double mocha latte with low fat cream with a twist of lemon and honey but dont put cinnamon on it like the last time because I have an allergy to cinnamon and my hypo-allergenic cat wont recognize me if there’s cinnamon on my breath” ….

Oh . but “you get to track all your purchases from now til 2010.”
When exactly was the last time you checked what type of coffee and where it was purchased in 2010……like never?
Newsflash bubba! Only your accountant, and (God help you) the CRA give a shit about your purchases.

cash is still king and unlike the doddering old people who take FOREVER to did out a dime from their purse
to give the cashier exact change………
When I’m going through caffeine withdrawl and I lower myself to actually drop an exorbitant amount of money into that Satanic, posturing, overly expensive hell hole known as $tarbucks to order a “coffee of the day” from some snotty “bore-rrista” …..I give them a fin and when they hand me my change…..I pocket it.
Because…..I’m me :)

#125 crowdedelevatorfartz on 10.25.16 at 12:56 am

@#112 The Wet Coast
“I suggest folks pull up Zolo.”
*******************************************
Thanks for the excellent advise but Mr Bdwy Skytrain doesnt want the truth.
He just wants to brag about how rich he is……..for now.

#126 data on 10.25.16 at 1:04 am

Garth – nobody cares about debt outstanding. You forget that DEBT SERVICING is the LOWEST in the G7. In Canada you can borrow a million bucks for 18k a year. So if you graph debt servicing, it’s been very steady. That’s what matters to Canadians.

People paying down debt and living like peaseants in million dollar homes….think about it, is that not a good thing for the lender of that home? Don’t get caught up in the cosmetics of large debt or TV tray living. Defaults are low, employment is around and people are doing what it takes to pay. It may be stupid to trapped in debt, but’s that not housing problem.

#127 Karma on 10.25.16 at 1:32 am

#110 NEVER GIVE UP on 10.24.16 at 10:47 pm
“#101 S.Bby on 10.24.16 at 10:15 pm
How do you find the Dom?
The realtor.ca website does not show it does it?”

Zolo.ca does. DOM = 90

https://www.zolo.ca/burnaby-real-estate/5427-spruce-street

#128 Karma on 10.25.16 at 1:36 am

#112 The Wet Coast on 10.24.16 at 10:53 pm
“I suggest folks pull up Zolo. Filter for single family homes in Burnaby or Coquitlam. Then scroll through the listings and look at the inside of the house. Really surprising how many are empty and look like they were recently renovated. After you do it for a while you can start to pick out the ones that are likely empty and renovated. If the folks that own these homes start to panic it will get rough.”

I was playing on zolo.ca today. I zoomed out to see the GVA and was just gobsmacked at the number and concentration of listings in Vancouver above Broadway from downtown to Northwest Burnaby. It’s ridiculous!!

I suggest people take a look for themselves. It’s like the whole city wants to move…

#129 Karma on 10.25.16 at 1:36 am

Here’s the link:

https://www.zolo.ca/map_search.php#

#130 Karma on 10.25.16 at 1:38 am

Like, the majority of that area are detached homes…

#131 DON on 10.25.16 at 2:11 am

#22 Damifino on 10.24.16 at 6:27 pm

Anyone care to describe how a “safe landing” of the Vancouver Hindenburg might look?

I lack the imaginative capacity.
****************
Could make this a blog contest: Who can come up with the line of reasoning to support a soft/safe landing.

#132 Mark on 10.25.16 at 2:20 am

Renting in Mississauga. House is worth $1M. Rent $2700 a month. Rent vs own ratio of 30. According to Garth I’m laughing all the way to the bank. I work in Markham so I’m looking to move, I found a monster home to rent for $2800 per month, home is worth $1.8M!!! Rent vs own ratio of 53!!! Why would you ever buy or own this house???

Crazy, isn’t it? But that’s how people get rich. They rent or borrow at low implied rates, and they invest in stuff that delivers a much higher rate of return. Pocketing the difference.

XIU has an after-tax earnings yield of approximately 7%, the underlying companies trade at around 8-10X cashflow. A mere $269k-$336k of XIU provides the same cashflow as that $1.8M Markham house. Amazing, isn’t it? Yet everyone says its “good” to leverage RE, but “stocks are very risky”.

Someday stock owners will get to mark their Canadian portfolios to crazy P/E ratios, and it will be time to sell and probably buy RE. But until then, we should thank heavens that there’s a housing bubble, albeit a deflating one at this point (after 3+ years of stagnation), for providing such cheap alternative places to put our investment capital. Scarce or not.

#133 Damifino on 10.25.16 at 2:49 am

#68 Andrew Woburn

“Layaway means you get the goods when your prepayments equal the purchase price. Welcome back to the Fifties. This is how ordinary people used to buy things then.”
————————————-

Or… you could always put your ‘prepayments’ in a tin can and go to the store to when you finally had the cash you needed to make the purchase. That would be more like a return to the twenties. I think they called it “saving” back then.

#134 Hiddenbubble & The Dog on 10.25.16 at 3:00 am

…Hindenbubble in for a safe landing, instead of going all fireball.

Thank you for making my last sip of Espresso + Grappa come out of my nose Garth.
_____________________________

My dog did that.

My pheasant hunting English Springer Spaniel, with a big sweet tooth, dug a hole in my backyard, found a Cadbury Chocolate wrapper at that depth and got all excited.

I proceeded to bury him half way in the hole, to make a point. He did not care. He got his chocolate high.

Thanks for the image Garth, brought back a fond memory of my crazy dog Rocky from 30 years ago.

bsant

#135 GreaterFool D. on 10.25.16 at 3:14 am

Did you know?
The first prime minister and founding father of Canada, John A Macdonald, was a raging alcoholic. He spent entire campaigns fabulously drunk and once vomited on stage during a stump speech. When his rival pointed it out, Macdonald shot back that he hadn’t puked because of booze, but because he had been “forced to listen to the ranting of my honourable opponent”. It was a deflection worthy of Trump. Macdonald handily won the election.

#136 Thank you #36 GsAmazon on 10.25.16 at 3:20 am

Second time this morning my sip of espresso + grappa came out my nose.

That was clever and too funny. Thanks for the humor.

Would you 2 comedians, GsAmazon and Garth, please take turns so I can have at least 1 morning where I can sip my espresso and grappa, and not expel through my nose.

Thanks in advance.

bsant

#137 Mark on 10.25.16 at 3:30 am

The big question Garth is within the context of Canadian real estate reverting back to the mean, what will the mean actually end being?

No reason why the mean can’t be consistent with that of the historic mean. And mean reversion implies that there will be periods spent *above* mean to match periods spent below the mean, such that the long-term mean is restored.

So Canadian borrowers not only need to fear going back to the mean (6.8% sounds plausible, although I actually think its a bit higher than that!), but they should also fear the overshoot. After all, there was so much overshoot to the downside on interest rates, so there probably will be some overshoot to the upside at some point in the cycle.

#138 Mark on 10.25.16 at 4:16 am

Walmark:

http://www.budget.gc.ca/2015/docs/plan/anx4-eng.html

Chart A4.3 is quite interesting. Canada’s average term to maturity of its government debt has been a fairly constant 7.5-8 years.

The average issuance of US new debt term to maturity is only 4 years and has been falling over the years.

Take a moment to consider what that *really* means. Hint: it helps to think of it in terms of what it means to a homeowner, to take out a short-term adjustable rate loan, versus locking in their financing over the long term. The short-term adjustable borrower benefits, comparatively, when rates are low and falling by being able to refinance into the lower rates, but gets absolutely creamed when rates start rising.

In a nutshell, if you truly believe USD$ interest rates are rising, which they appear to be due to greater inflationary pressures in the USA (due to depleted productive capacity), then you should run, run far away from the USD$. Canada and the CAD$, with the comparatively longer term financing, will benefit from the longer-term nature of government financing in a rising interest rate world. Having locked in financing rates and being less sensitive to changes in interest rates across the yield curve.

Anecdotally, when I study the balance sheets of lots of US companies, the same tends to occur which is why so many “industrial” companies(ie: GE) in the US basically cr*pped their pants when short-term credit dried up in 2008/2009 and had to beg for bail-outs. While very few, if any Canadian non-financial companies had any meaningful problems during the credit seize-up arising from the credit markets themselves.

#139 Don't Give Up in Burnaby on 10.25.16 at 4:16 am

bdwy sktrn, here’s a few for you inching there way to $1MM – seem nice enough to me [from about 10 days ago]:

$1,380,000 ($170,000 price reduction on Oct 13)
4 bd 2 ba 2234 ft2 Built in 1959
6871 Carnegie Street Burnaby Sperling-Duthie
12.3% reduction

$1,148,000 ($101,000 price reduction on Oct 5)
2 bd 2 ba 1335 ft2 Built in 1999
8607 10th Avenue Burnaby The Crest
8.8% reduction

$1,458,000 ($140,000 price reduction Oct 7)
5 bd 3 ba 2809 ft2 Built in 1976
4031 Parker Street Burnaby Willingdon Heights
9.6% reduction

43 pages of listings today for Burnaby at Zolo.ca. Used to be 20 or so pages 10 days ago.

Look’s like the Speculator’s are cashing out in droves.

Zolo’s new trick is to put Reduced properties near the end of those 43 pages.

Click away. Lot’s of deals now.

Imagine post-Morneau list prices still to come.

You may get your 70% crash wish after all.

bsant

#140 Victor V on 10.25.16 at 7:07 am

Why the Ontario housing market is rigged against millennials

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/why-the-ontario-housing-market-is-rigged-against-millennials/article32499455

I live in a vibrant Toronto neighbourhood, just across from a university. It looks diverse, because of all the students, but it’s really not. Middle-class families were pushed out long ago – first to Scarborough and Mississauga, then to Ajax and Pickering and Newmarket and Barrie. But even in the hinterland, housing prices have soared out of sight. A run-of-the-mill three-bedroom house in Ajax (a brutal commute from Toronto) now goes for $500,000 or $600,000.

The high cost of housing is a huge issue for young families. Population pressures, foreign investors, land shortages and greedy developers usually get the blame. But there’s another culprit: government. The affordability crisis in the greater Toronto area is a direct result of provincial government policy. To put it bluntly, the Liberals at Queen’s Park – the vast majority of whom already have nice houses – are shafting the millennials.

#141 pBrasseur on 10.25.16 at 7:17 am

#137 Mark

What you fail to see is that much of the public debt in Canada is owed by the provinces and they also have to roll over.

Also, even with higher rates, US taxpayers already pay a lot less to service the public debt than Canadians (mainly because 35% of their debt is intra governmental and does not need to be serviced). The US government can absolutely support interest rates a little higher, especially if the economy is growing.

More importantly the current predicament we’re in pretty much guaranties that Canadians (both private and public) are going to fall deeper in debt before they start to recover.

Canada is in trouble, and so is its dollar.

#142 Victor V on 10.25.16 at 7:21 am

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/10/25/joe-oliver-to-run-for-ontario-tories-in-2018-election.html

Former federal finance minister Joe Oliver will be running for Patrick Brown’s provincial Progressive Conservatives, the Star has learned.

Oliver — prime minister Stephen Harper’s treasurer until losing his seat in Eglinton-Lawrence in last October’s vote — plans to seek the Tory nomination in York Centre for the 2018 election.

“I really believe that we have a problem here in Ontario,” he said in an interview Monday.

“In my opinion, Ontarians have been suffering far too long from the waste, incompetence, and political scandals of the Kathleen Wynne government.”

#143 I'm stupid on 10.25.16 at 7:28 am

People make me sick! I hired a guy to work for me and exactly 2 months later he’s filing a wsib claim, saying he has tennis elbow. He messaged me telling me to find someone else because he can’t do the job. Does he think I’m actually stupid, I offered him modified duties and he lost his shit. I googled the doctor that said he can’t use his right arm for 2 months and it seems he was caught helping people get special food subsidies from welfare.

This loser was telling me how his wife wants a bigger home. Her suggestion was that he get money from his parents and she’ll get money from hers. I have a suggestion too, go to work!

I feel stupid because I felt sorry for this bum. Wife 2 kids starting a new career at 34 making $25 an hour. The sad reality is that people are in the situation they’re in because of their own decisions. I doubt he’ll show up for modified duties and good luck getting a wsib claim when you refuse.

#144 farsyd on 10.25.16 at 8:33 am

Tony is charging $5 a week on a $100 loan, over 260% interest rate per year! Usurious!

#145 LL on 10.25.16 at 8:38 am

…”is now such a serious issue that the international banking community is warning we may be pooched. Look at the chart below. It shows the percentage of new mortgages used to buy houses by people with a loan-to-income ratio of 450% or more”….

Who created that?

#146 LL on 10.25.16 at 8:45 am

…”It’s why lenders will soon be forced to share the risk on mortgage defaults”….

It’s about time!

#147 LL on 10.25.16 at 9:00 am

….”Meanwhile too much debt means huge amounts of money must be directed to non-productive interest payments, diverted from investing and hurting growth. So, retail sales suck”….

Maybe Wall Mart sell less but municipalities enjoy receiving high taxes, realtors enjoy high commission, attorney have lots of customers, renovation centre…bankers, etc…
Those evolving around real estate have made $$..lots!

#148 Rate Hike Coming on 10.25.16 at 9:53 am

The Fin Min appears to be safe guarding the country for the repercussions of an upcoming rate hike. The banks can take a beating but he appears to be protecting the tax payers.
Three cheers to our Fin Min.

#149 Alex on 10.25.16 at 10:12 am

@WalMark of Sadkatoon

Maybe SK is not a part of Canada anymore, but TSX just break the 52w high, if you were asleep…

Range 14,894.77 – 14,925.19
52 week 11,531.22 – 14,963.60
Open 14,921.90
Vol. 20.99M

For last 10y yearly TOTAL return is about 6%

#150 Bat Flipper on 10.25.16 at 10:16 am

Debt per person: 125,142.
Not everyone works though.
Debt per taxpayer: 375,427

Not sure if we will ever be able to raise rates or climb out from under this rock.

#151 Zen Headspace on 10.25.16 at 10:30 am

People have gone too far with irresponsible borrowing. I think they are hopelessly trying to fill the void in their lives by acquiring material possessions beyond their true needs.

What they are seeking will never be found through debt.

“Be content with what you have, rejoice in the way things are. When you realize there is nothing lacking, the whole world belongs to you.”– Lao Tzu

#152 Zen Headspace on 10.25.16 at 10:33 am

#143 farsyd

Tony is charging $5 a week on a $100 loan, over 260% interest rate per year! Usurious!
——————————————————————-

Is his last name Soprano? Oooooooooh…bada BING!

#153 For those about to flop... on 10.25.16 at 11:07 am

Bdy Sktrn has been pumping pretty hard but one thing he has in his favour is that his neighborhood under the classification of Grandview on zolo is currently ranked as 3rd hottest in the Couv.

The situation is so fluid at the moment that my hood Fraser went from 5th hottest to 14th in less than 2weeks.

Besides Crowdedelevatorfartz,the hot air has not leaked out of anything in Vancouver so quickly since the old roof on B.C Place got a hole in it…

M42BC

#154 james on 10.25.16 at 11:49 am

Well at least Donald trump is winning in this race!
Wow his followers must be as dumb as sheep.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/17/technology/donald-trump-deception/index.html?iid=ob_article_videocrpool

#155 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.25.16 at 12:11 pm

#140 pBrasseur on 10.25.16 at 7:17 am

This pretty much sums up why the US is doing better than Canada.

And why the CAD$ has been so sad for so long

#156 Nemesis on 10.25.16 at 12:33 pm

#LightReadingForNeverGiveUp,Or… #FunnyYouShouldSayThat…

[WSJ] – Chinese Hackers Suspected In Long-Term Nortel Breach

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052970203363504577187502201577054

[CBC] – Nortel collapse linked to Chinese hackers
Corporate espionage continues against Canadian firms, security expert says

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/nortel-collapse-linked-to-chinese-hackers-1.1260591

[G&M] – Department of National Defence’s new $1-billion facility falls short on security

…”Despite extensive work on the complex, including clearing it of listening devices planted by corporate spies in its Nortel days, the new headquarters falls short of the rigorous security requirements of Canada’s Five Eyes intelligence partners: the United States, Britain, Australia and New Zealand…

For that reason, ultrasecret military intelligence operations, as well as Canadian Special Operations Forces and Canadian Joint Operations Command, which oversees military operations in Iraq, will stay in their current locations…

…A security shield will need to be installed in the dome of the complex’s main building that will house the offices of the defence minister, chief of the defence staff, deputy minister and senior generals. These top officials are scheduled to move into the campus in 2020.”…

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/department-of-national-defences-new-1-billion-facility-falls-short-on-security/article31685234/

#BonusSubterfuge,Or… #DNDacquires”FailSafeDomedSecurityShield”…

https://youtu.be/g1eUIK9CihA?t=16s

#157 TurnerNation on 10.25.16 at 12:44 pm

For blog dog Tony…TCK.B seems unshortable yet.
It keeps basing and rising. I follow TCK.US.

#158 Vb1978 on 10.25.16 at 1:18 pm

#151 Zen Headspace on 10.25.16 at 10:33 am
#143 farsyd

Tony is charging $5 a week on a $100 loan, over 260% interest rate per year!

****************

Still cheaper than payday loans!

The following is an example is taken directly from Money Mart’s website:

For a $300.00 loan for 14 days:
The Total Cost of Borrowing this loan is $69.00
The Annual Percentage Rate is 599.64%.

#159 Context on 10.25.16 at 1:22 pm

#141 Victor V :- This cannot be true as the Olive Man is clueless, as for him running for anything he must have had a senior’s moment.

#160 bdwy sktrn on 10.25.16 at 1:25 pm

#152 For those about to flop… on 10.25.16 at 11:07 am
Grandview on zolo is currently ranked as 3rd hottest in the Couv.
————————-
and 1st hottest for sfh as the top two are predominantly condo areas (note lower avg price yet westside)

if reporting all sold prices in the area is pumping, well, guilty, i guess.

calling shenanigans on claims of 500k drops on houses in this area is hardly pumping either.

zolo does show reductions, can’t imagine the realtors like that much!. only a few real dogs showing much deserved reductions in grandview.

zolo is showing a brand new (1day)listing on my block that mls does not have showing yet. fast.

——–
but here is the new dirt – there are 3 or 4 newer listings in the area, but down closer to hastings st. One is actually asking UNDER a mil. all small lots and dozer bait but at 1.2ish these seem low.

on the flip side the only other new listing in that area is a small lot (25) with a really nice quality heritage restore/reno – not showing on zolo yet but list price is 2.328.

if they got 2m it would be a record high for anything on a 25’lot down there.

#161 smartalox on 10.25.16 at 1:31 pm

#81 NoName on 10.24.16 at 8:56 pm
#44 millenial905er on 10.24.16 at 7:02 pm

dodge durango 42395 base
mercedes GLC 45150 base

which one would you chose?

******************************

Actually, the Dodge Durango (and the Jeep Grand Cherokee) share a platform (powertrains, suspensions and components) and engineering with Benz’s top – of – the – line M-class and GLE SUVs (Starting price $63,800, making the Durango a bargain in comparison).

The vehicles were the last joint development before the Daimler-Chrysler merger broke up.

At any rate, a good indicator of whether a luxury-car owner is ‘just get by’ is to look at the tires: if the treads are worn down, its likely that other maintenance has been neglected.

There’s a near-new (2012?) Mercedes ML 63-AMG SUV parked in front of my townhome complex in my low-cost Vancouver hood. A top-of-the-line model, with tires worn bald. It’s parked on the street and has not moved in days. I’m sure that the owner can’t afford gas for that big, thirsty, twin-turbocharged engine, let alone replace the worn-out tires.

Of course, it may also have been abandoned: I’ve heard reports of luxury cars being parked in the short-term parking facility at YVR, going on weeks or months. People leaving Canada with no intention of returning.

#162 Foreign Buyers Tax on 10.25.16 at 1:36 pm

#109

It doesn’t matter if they don’t implimented the 15% foreign tax since it’s not foreigners who is driving up the prices. It’s cheap and easy credit but I’m sure you Realtors know that.
———————–

Um, have you not learned anything from this blog and the media coverage about the impact of foreign capital in BC?

The refrain ‘its not foreign buyers driving prices up’ is so laughable now it out of be banned.

Your perspective is so 2015 – when ever realtor, developer and politician was saying the same thing in BC and claiming all was well – until things were not and they realized the public knew what was going on and was so ticked off that action had to be taken.

If the Metro Vancouver market sales can dry up and prices tank 19% after one month of the Foreign Buyer’s Tax in BC, do you really think that foreign capital has no impact? If the provincial data showing up to 20% of sales in some Metro Vancouver communities were from foreign buyers, is there no impact from foreign capital? Remember, all it took was 8% of marginal buyers in the US to cause a 32% national price decline. So whether foreign capital purchases constitute 5 or 10 percent, the impact is still there – only the magnitude of its impact is up for debate.

Based on the YVR experience and other jurisdictions, there are two major consequences to foreign capital purchasing real estate:

The first is the actual impact of driving higher end property prices upwards, which then creates a domino effect on all prices, as those that cash out from foreign capital purchases go to the next community and drive those prices up. Across Metro Vancouver and the GTA you see all the bedroom communities getting price boosts because of the domino effect.

The second impact, and one highly prized by realtors and the development industry, is the FOMO effect. Once the public realizes or is told that rich foreign capital is buying up houses, then the masses engage in panic buying.

So please, lets get beyond the naive belief that foreign capital has no impact on prices.

And by the way, had Ontario implemented the foreign buyers tax, the GTA correction would have started in earnest. Now that the threat of a tax is gone, foreign capital will buy and the FOMO will be stoked and the GTA market will be hot until the population will seek action. Judging by Vancouver, the GTA has many more years of surreal price increases before the public cry gets too loud to ignore. All those posting about a surge in listings in the GTA (without prices softening) will be eating crow next month as the market assumes its upward trajectory. File this comment for future reference next month and in Spring 2017.

#163 Fluid YVR RE on 10.25.16 at 1:45 pm

Tracking Burnaby for a few months now. List price drops since late August for the most part in low to upper teens.

New listings impounding those price drops.

Grim.

Grimmer Ross Kay reckons 19.5% drop on average in YVR RE since 1st Qtr peak.

Recent heat due to some crazy people trying to beat Wild Bill measures.

To dumb to realize prices will drop even more after the measures begin to take hold. I guess they want to buy more home after that?

More grim news yet to come will be mortgage deductibility. With skin in the game, lenders will tighten loans.

Fewer buyers with less money to spend and a lot more Speculator’s cashing out now in Burnaby – listing up about 25% since 10 days ago…just count the number of listing pages at Zolo.ca for Burnaby.

Don’t get me wrong, all for some relief to what has been a mind boggling drop in YVR RE.

But that relief will be temporary.

bsant

#164 Smoking Man on 10.25.16 at 2:03 pm

#153 james on 10.25.16 at 11:49 am
Well at least Donald trump is winning in this race!
Wow his followers must be as dumb as sheep.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/17/technology/donald-trump-deception/index.html?iid=ob_article_videocrpool
……………………………
The Clinton News Network?

Please!!!

Man, Micheal Moore is in his camp now, the most unhinged lefty loon out there. Can you imagine how many more democrats he’s got to switch teams. Get ready for the biggest upset in American History.

#165 traderJim on 10.25.16 at 2:20 pm

#153 james

Trump supporters are ‘dumb as sheep’. Hillary herself calls them deplorable and irredeemable, racists etc.

Shows that Scott Adams is right, Democrats are a party of bullies now.

#166 bdwy sktrn on 10.25.16 at 2:21 pm

http://www.vancouversun.com/terrifying+spider+drags+mouse+refrigerator/12313411/story.html

An Australia man posted a video to Facebook over the weekend of a gigantic huntsman spider dragging a mouse up a refrigerator, presumably for dinner.

nice.

#167 For those about to flop... on 10.25.16 at 2:41 pm

Hey Bdy Sktrn,you do realize I was trying to help you out by pointing out to people that you might not have noticed the drop as much as some people have by showing that you live in a hot area.

I was trying to throw you a lifesaver.

Not my fault it has S.S. Titanic written on it…

M42BC

#168 Freedom First on 10.25.16 at 2:58 pm

#163 Smoking Man

Yes. Americans are pi$$ed. Smoking Man. I’m on board. Trump is going to win. Not that I shiv a git.

I look after me. It is my sole responsibility.

007
Freedom First
PHD/Freedomonics

#169 Toronto Dan on 10.25.16 at 3:06 pm

Hey Garth… Why do I keep seeing the loan-to-income ratio of 450% or more as the benchmark? Call me moist but are million dollar houses only reserved for those making over $180 k a year and who can ante up a 20% down payment? If the average household income in Toronto is around $75 k then the cap there is around $400 k (and thats with an extra $70 k in the bank). I accept that my first house is not going to be the same as my parents, but how can I get started without having to drive from Dufferin M-F? Thanks, -Toronto Dan

#170 fleabitten monkey on 10.25.16 at 3:17 pm

Bdwy Skytrn – general question, your friend who is a realtor…does he or she know whether the folks paying over ask for the property sales you reference are locals funding from domestic income sources? Or whether they are foreign buyers (unlikely given the stats)? Or whether they local buyers with income sources from foreign domiciles? Interested even if only anecdotal.
Cheers

#171 devore on 10.25.16 at 3:34 pm

#5 Cash is King

“Nobody has ever borrowed their way to prosperity.”

Then why do finance minister’s of every province and the Fed’s continue to do it?

Is it different on a government level?

Not at all. Or do they look prosperous to you? Maybe it’s one of those ‘if your friends jump off a building, would you too’.

#172 IHCTD9 on 10.25.16 at 3:48 pm

#125 data on 10.25.16 at 1:04 am
Nobody cares about debt outstanding. You forget that DEBT SERVICING is the LOWEST in the G7. In Canada you can borrow a million bucks for 18k a year. So if you graph debt servicing, it’s been very steady. That’s what matters to Canadians.

____________________________________________

That like saying you don’t need a fire hose because it’s just a small forest fire…

#173 bdwy sktrn on 10.25.16 at 4:00 pm

#166 For those about to flop… on 10.25.16 at 2:41 pm

I was trying to throw you a lifesaver.
—————–
yes, thanks.

…………………….
#169 fleabitten monkey on 10.25.16 at 3:17 pm
Bdwy Skytrn – general question, your friend who is a realtor…does he or she know whether the folks paying over ask for the property sales you reference are locals funding from domestic income sources? Or whether they are foreign buyers (unlikely given the stats)? Or whether they local buyers with income sources from foreign domiciles?
—————————
he does not. but i can tell you.

no HAM here, never was. people actually live in the houses here, no status for the high rollers here in gritty east van.

only one sale was sfh the rest condo/attached.

as an example the newest neighbours are 2 u of t profs, now at ubc, sold gta place before buying here.

#174 IHCTD9 on 10.25.16 at 4:05 pm

#168 Toronto Dan on 10.25.16 at 3:06 pm
Hey Garth… Why do I keep seeing the loan-to-income ratio of 450% or more as the benchmark? Call me moist but are million dollar houses only reserved for those making over $180 k a year and who can ante up a 20% down payment? If the average household income in Toronto is around $75 k then the cap there is around $400 k (and thats with an extra $70 k in the bank). I accept that my first house is not going to be the same as my parents, but how can I get started without having to drive from Dufferin M-F? Thanks, -Toronto Dan
___________________________________________

If you are young, and your family (gf/wife) are not making 200K+ combined, then just forget about owning a detached house in Toronto and most of the GTA. Just let the idea leave your cranium without struggle, you are going to be renting, and this cost even could void your ability to both live and save/invest.

The GTA does not allow regular folks to become landowners unless dire risks are taken. Big debt with a possible side order of insolvency, or no savings or investments served with a broke retirement – choose your poison.

Much better off in a smaller town making near the same money and getting a nice place for 200-300K.

T.Dan – Cliff Notes: At this point, you DON’T get started in Toronto RE.

#175 rjrt81 on 10.25.16 at 4:37 pm

#163 Smoking Man on 10.25.16 at 2:03 pm
#153 james on 10.25.16 at 11:49 am
Well at least Donald trump is winning in this race!
Wow his followers must be as dumb as sheep.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/17/technology/donald-trump-deception/index.html?iid=ob_article_videocrpool
……………………………
The Clinton News Network?

Please!!!

Man, Micheal Moore is in his camp now, the most unhinged lefty loon out there. Can you imagine how many more democrats he’s got to switch teams. Get ready for the biggest upset in American History.

——————————————————————–

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Trump has marganilized waaaaaaaaaaay to many people to even come close. Can’t wait for this Trump created soap opera to end. And you can take your rightful position on your hands and knees scrubbing toilets for Garth. No chance your getting near the ice cream. He’s trying to run a business not ruin it.

#176 Context on 10.25.16 at 4:57 pm

I just phoned someone and said you won’t believe this. The Olive man who can’t remember the time of day plans to seek the Tory nomination in York Centre in 2018 as he believes there might be a problem in Ontario. Might as in maybe or maybe not, as guess he believes he might be the man to fix things. The recipient of my phone call was laughing so hard he could not talk anymore and hung up.

#177 Victor V on 10.25.16 at 5:06 pm

Canadians’ use of high-interest payday loans doubles, raising more red flags about debt

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/debt/canadians-use-of-payday-loans-doubles-raising-more-red-flags-about-debt

“High household indebtedness and low levels of consumer savings, particularly the absence of a household emergency fund, make a payday loan a solution for many consumers despite their very high cost,” said Jane Rooney
, financial literacy leader at the consumer agency.

The survey of 1,500 payday loan users showed that many Canadians are unaware of the high cost compared to alternative sources of funds. For example, fewer than half, 43 per cent, understood that a payday loan is more expensive than a cash advance on a credit card.

The research also found that while most payday loan users are low- to moderate-income earners, seven per cent have incomes of more than $120,000.

#178 Renter's Revenge! on 10.25.16 at 5:10 pm

Can’t wait for RE to stop being a “good investment” in Canada. Then maybe we’ll get back some semblance of a culture here (along with investment in new businesses with productive jobs). Piling on debt and talking about home renos doesn’t count.

#179 espressobob on 10.25.16 at 5:11 pm

Business people understand a simple principle when dealing with clients. Their success is yours as well. Old school I guess?

Seems Tony has an interesting business model. Take from the fools and pad my bank account. Can’t say he’s wrong. It may not be ethical, but definitely profitable.

Somehow I get the feeling our GTA is going to be bombarded with pawn/loan shops? Like we don’t have enough cafes.

#180 Ronaldo on 10.25.16 at 5:16 pm

#163 Smoking Man

”Man, Micheal Moore is in his camp now, the most unhinged lefty loon out there. Can you imagine how many more democrats he’s got to switch teams. Get ready for the biggest upset in American History.”
—————————————————————
Contrary to what the phony polls are stating and the Clinton News Network (CNN), I agree that he is going to run away with it. People are fed up with the b.s. and see great hope in this guy even with all of his faults.

With the stuff coming out on H.R.C. lately I can see a big shift in those previously leaning in her direction especially with Micheal Moore now going onto the Trump side. At least Trump is not bought and paid for like his opponent is. There are many at the higher levels right now that would like it if Trump were to just disappear but the fact is that he is getting more popular with every rally and he does a lot of them.

His latest rally in Florida yesterday had 28000 people and many more wanting to get in. That alone has to tell you something. Hillary on the other hand is lucky to get 500 at her rallies. As Trump stated, the MSM refuses to pan the audiences with their cameras as they don’t want to reveal his popularity as it does not match what they are preaching about him.

Although Trump talks like a street thug at times, Hillary’s foul mouth would far outdo any of the logger’s that I worked with in a camp setting. She has disdain for the middle and lower classes as is fairly obvious if you’ve read the literature written on her by people who worked close to her.

As Smokey once stated, the likes of people like her look upon we in the middle class just as some look upon a beggar on the street. Not that I am for either one of these individuals but I would choose the lesser of the two evils if that is all I had to choose from. As I stated before, we are going to be in for quite a surprise come November 8th. I look forward to it with great anticipation.

#181 Here comes the crash on 10.25.16 at 5:23 pm

DELETED

#182 Here comes the crash on 10.25.16 at 5:34 pm

#181 Here comes the crash on 10.25.16 at 5:33 pm
161 Foreign Buyers Tax on 10.25.16
“Remember, all it took was 8% of marginal buyers in the US to cause a 32% national price decline”

The new mortgage rules just knocked out 20-30% of the of marginal buyers. Lol you Realtors can’t keep your lies and misinformation together . By you own admission prices will crash even harder in toronto then the US.

#183 Ronaldo on 10.25.16 at 5:35 pm

#116 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 10.24.16 at 11:13 pm

Did Micheal Moore just indorse Trump?

https://youtu.be/pADHLsECWxY

The world is getting strange..

Not too strange.

I suspected as much after he penned this:
http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/
————————————————————–
And then this:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/10/michael-moore-voting-for-trump.php

#184 Ryan on 10.25.16 at 6:06 pm

The comments here are so over the top I can’t tell if you’re serious or satire. This is /pol/ level content Garth, why bother moderating it? Get some volunteers or shut it down.