Hopes and Fears

High hopes relating to change and the removal of longstanding obstacles to progress in the region inevitably go hand in hand with high fears, as our selection of articles this week shows.

Deliberate Destabilisation?

Protests in Skopje against the ‘name’ deal. Photo: EPA/NAKE BATEV

Over the weekend, Greece and Macedonia formally signed an agreement which paves the way for resolving their dispute over the latter’s name and identity which has lasted more than two decades. The positive reverberations created by this agreement are still being felt across the region and much of Europe.

Not everyone is quite as excited about the agreement however. Indeed, in both countries the agreement faces significant opposition on the right of the political spectrum. Macedonia has seen violent protests, yet again raising fears of destabilisation. We look at who and what is behind these protests, including external actors potentially lurking in the shadows.

Unenthused

Signing an agreement in the village of Psarades, Florina, Greece, 2018. Photo: EPA-EFE/NIKOS ARVANITIDIS

While it may be understandable that not everyone in Greece and Macedonia is thrilled about the solution to the ‘name’ dispute between the two countries, why some neighbouring countries such as Serbia and Hungary are adopting such an icy position towards this historic deal is not immediately obvious.

In his comment piece for Balkan Insight, Jasmin Mujanovic puts forward one interpretation, arguing that, just as the people power which toppled the Gruevski regime in Macedonia a year ago did not suit other authoritarian leaders in the region, who feared that the same fate might befall them, so it does not suit them to see the new Zaev government notch up a major success.

Read more: Macedonia’s Precedent Frightens Illiberal Balkan Regimes (June 21, 2018)

Hanging in the Balance

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks during an election campaign rally of Justice and Development Party (AK Party) in Istanbul, Turkey, 2018. Photo: EPA-EFE/ERDEM SAHIN

After the excitement generated by the Greek-Macedonian deal, all eyes are now turning to Turkey. Much is at stake in the country, where voters will go to the polls to vote in crucial Parliamentary and Presidential elections this weekend, after which the new executive presidential system will come into full force.

Initially most observers had expected that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his AKP would be re-elected with little difficulty. Yet as our analysis shows, this now looks more uncertain than anyone, including Erdogan, had expected. Opponents of the regime are hopeful for change, yet this would not be the first time that such hopes had been dashed.

Read more: Turbulent Turkey Braces for Tight Election (June 18, 2018)

Growing Influence

Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban arrives for a European Council meeting in Brussels, Belgium, 2018. Photo: EPA-EFE/ARIS OIKONOMOU / POOL

While international media and observers usually focus on how illiberal powers such as Russia, China or Turkey are expanding their influence in the Balkans, relatively little attention has been paid to how smaller, regional powers such as Hungary are building their influence in the region.

This week, we analyse precisely how Hungary’s illiberal government has sought to expand its influence in the region, as well as what lies behind these efforts. While in countries like Romania and Serbia the focus of Budapest is on its own ethnic kin usually, in other countries, such as Macedonia, it is illegal migration which is attracting Hungarian involvement.

Read more: Orban’s Hungary Strengthens its Presence in the Balkans (June 20, 2018)

Trepidation

Big cities with big EU-funded projects fare well, as the example of the Sofia metro shows. Yet, European funding does not always have positive effects only. Picture: Minko Chernev, EPA.

The news that poorer EU countries such as Bulgaria will see an increase in the structural and cohesion funds which they receive from the EU budget is, in principle, good news. Yet given the mixed results which these funds have generated in Bulgaria in the past, some are greeting this news with a degree of trepidation.

To be sure, the funds are important for Bulgaria – in the period 2015-2017, EU funding accounted for 40 per cent of public investment in the country. Yet EU funded projects in Bulgaria are also synonymous with corruption and mismanagement. We examine in more detail.

Read more: Bulgaria Split Over Benefits of More EU Funds (June 19, 2018)

Grounded

Photo: Beta

The tourist season in Croatia, a key plank of the economy is about to take off. Yet problems in the country’s national carrier, Croatian Airlines, threaten to ground it before it even gets off the ground.

Once the pride of the country, Croatian Airlines has been in trouble for years. The company is struggling with liquidity and bad management. In an act of desperation, staff are threatening to strike in the middle of the tourist season in order to ensure better working conditions and pay.