Turns out that April was an better month than March to buy property. May is even moreso. June and July could be worse. And the last thing you ever want, we’re told, is to in a bidding war with a hungry, desperate, house-lusty Millennial.
Here are the stats: sales across the country down 12% last month. Prices up more than 2%. Months of inventory edged higher from 1.7 to two (normal is five). As reported here some days ago, action in Toronto and Van stalled and there’s evidence we may have hit peak house after an utterly-raunchy early rutting season.
Even CREA sees it. “There is growing evidence that some of the extreme imbalances of the last year are beginning to unwind, which is what everyone wants to see happen,” says head poohbah realtor god Cliff Stevenson. And Wave Three of Covid has a lot to do with that, along with gently-rising mortgage rates and the looming enhanced stress test (June 1).
But this remains a dangerous time to thrust your toe into the real estate gene pool.
TD has come up with some sobering evidence on how an oversized annual property price increase has microwaved moister brains. Seems FOMO is so rampant now young buyers are willing to take extreme risks to become the owners of monster mortgages and inflated homes. The bank found more than half of those under 35 are fine with offering more than a seller is asking – compared with just 18% of people 55+. In fact a third of the kids are ready to pony up between fifty grand and $100,000 more than list.
Of course, this is their first foray into homeownership and the wondrous world of realtors. But those above fifty have something unique… experience. The gray hairs know markets ebb and markets flow. The most important lesson is probably this: it’s not different this time. It never is. Not yet, anyway.
However this Covid housing mania continues. A majority of Canadians understand buying a home is less attainable now than two years ago, but enough generational desperation remains to keep the fires burning. The 5.25% stress test coming in a couple of weeks may be fanning that.
It’s worth remembering how massive an impact residential real estate has on Canadian society. Its share of the GDP is greater than the entire oil & gas and mining sectors. Over-investment in housing has helped tank RRSP contributions and throttle funds going into TFSAs. Many will regret that. House sales over the last couple of years were up 75% in Canada, compared with 13% in the US. Residential prices here just climbed 32% while the increase Stateside was 17% – and even that has caused Americans to gag.
In fact, in the entire developed world house price inflation has been the greatest in little Canada, where a couple of cities (guess which ones?) are ranked among the least affordable on the planet. And in a country with more moose and beavers than Tim Hortons customers.
Look at this bank chart of Canadian and American prices. Have we lost our minds?
Of course we have. We’re obsessed. We have young adults who believe asking prices are just starting points and happily indebt themselves. Human nature is on full display – the more things rise and become out of reach, the more we covet them. FOMO, says another TD report, “appears to have been more of a driver in Canada” than in the States. And this…
The fear of missing out not only lends itself to prospective home buyers pulling forward homeownership plans, but it can also stoke increased speculative activity. Sharp sustained increases in home prices can draw in potential real estate investors aiming to reap the benefits of these gains. While much of the activity in 2020 appears to be from home buyers looking to live in the home, recently, there are signs that speculators are contributing to price growth. The Bank of Canada has chimed in stating that there are indications of excess exuberance in the Canadian housing market. This could perhaps partly explain why home prices in Canada have grown at roughly double the US rate over the past few months.
Back to experience for a minute. America had a real estate crash back around 2006. Prices nationally dipped as much as 32% (as they did in Canada’s last crash in the early 1990s). But here the housing dip surrounding the credit crisis was far more muted. In other words, a lot of 30-something US Millennials remember what a disaster home ownership was for their parents, especially those shouldering a monster debt. It’s a lesson most Canadians have yet to learn.
Well, what next? Should your daughter make that bully offer, or get into a bidding war for a beater house in Bunnypatch? Are you going to spot her a giant down paymen?
If you believe what got us here – pandemic, WFH, emergency rates and FOMO – will continue, go ahead. But I’d take the other side of that trade.
About the picture: “I read your blog daily and benefit from it frequently,” says Simon. ” I actually met you when you were running for office in Georgetown in the late 80’s, you were handing out political flyers, I graciously accepted your generous gift and I voted for you. Attached is a recent photo of Lucy our 5-month-old Bernedoodle, she is a handful, very smart and lots of fun. We are in our 60’s and miss our old dog who passed away about two years ago, we thought during Covid why not get a puppy? As you may suspect from the photo, she has attitude.”
149 comments ↓
That looks like one smart, yet very cynical dog! Oh, and FIRST! NOT!
Inflation up.
Housing sales stagnating.
Interest rates up.
CERB spending ramping down.
Trudeau running out of cash to throw at every special interest group that whines “they’re special”.
An election looming?
I cant wait.
RL lumber down again today:
Last $1,264.00 Change -63.00 (-4.75%)
Thanks for the post Garth.
Assuming the below forecast from the Ministry of Finance roughly pans out, does a shift in “pandemic, WFH, emergency rates and FOMO” really have the strength to impact prices in the face of this massive and unrelenting wave of shelter demand?
”
The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is projected to be the fastest growing region of the province, with its population increasing by 2.6 million, or 36.7 per cent, from 7.0 million in 2019 to over 9.5 million by 2046. The GTA’s share of provincial population is projected to rise from 47.9 per cent in 2019 to 49.8 per cent in 2046.
”
https://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/economy/demographics/projections/
I can certainly see a correction in Nanaimo but inquiring FOMO fighting minds in the big smoke want to know how prices can ever come down significantly with so much demand on the horizon for the GTA.
Prices are constrained by the ability of people to buy. It is already stretched and interest rate increases will exacerbate that. – Garth
Better hope Trudeau wins a majority in the next election. The Conservatives don’t stand a chance of winning. If Trudeau wins a minority or loses the election, it will be the NDP in power. The NDP will make the Libs look like Scrooge.
Oh man, could write a thesis here. We were told by our out of country landlord that they want to move in to our rental house, and we need to leave by end of August. Morals aside of their decision , decided to try and buy a house since we can afford a house in greater van through diligent saving and investing. We can buy and keep mortgage payments equal to rent.
Some lessons –
a)Ten!! Bids and no success. Become apathetic to the process, it helps.
the highest no subject bid doesn’t get you the house. b)Three times now seller has not accepted the highest offer but decided to relist. Think of it as getting a deal on the house if you resubmit a bid :)
c) North Van? Forget it. Too many buyers not enough inventory. Drive up to Squamish to look at houses. burn up some gas that has been sitting in your tank since covid.
d) expect the call from your realtor “can you ‘sweeten’ your offer, you are close, don’t know by how much though, and the sellers want to move out in November.” Hey- you can be a landlord to the people camping in your soon to be house…
e) sellers expectations are not inline with buyers. Be charitable – help out the poor homeowners and over pay, prices only go up!
My thought- Young Canadian now home buyers have been brought up by parents with comfortable jobs and likely pensions who bought houses that have appreciated in value. Their parents never bought a stock or investment outside fo GIC in their life (no need!) and only know price appreciation on homes. This has led to an indoctrinated mass of “housing only goes up” and leads everyone to need a house as security and for future. There is a disconnect between earned money that will be needed to cover costs and future windfall earnings (maybe).
Anyways, for me, doing a year overseas and will come back ready to play in whatever market is here.
Gee.
That took 5 months after Brexit became Law….
https://www.reuters.com/business/londons-golden-age-europes-financial-capital-is-over-says-natwest-chair-2021-05-18/
– Yes the permanent state of rolling Economic lockdowns in Kanada . There is no other way of acheiving health! I imagine the medical textbooks have been updated to record this technique?
https://www.tbnewswatch.com/local-news/local-leaders-call-for-regional-approach-3778395
Local leaders call for regional approach
—
— Good news Comrades. The kamp doctor will allow use of the kamp amenities again. This will make your sentence a little more enjoyable.
.Ontario will reopen outdoor recreational amenities ‘on or before June 2′(toronto.ctvnews.ca)
— https://twitter.com/BLNewsMedia/status/1394522623774793729?
12,000 North Carolina Hurricanes fans pack arena for Stanley Cup Finals game. Meanwhile, Toronto recently cancelled all major outdoor events for a second straight summer, including Taste of the Danforth, the CNE & the Honda Indy
“it’s not different this time. It never is. Not yet, anyway.”
Says My Liege knowing the impossible is possible courtesy Covid-19.
I liked the “Not, yet”.
CYA.
Something we’ve all had to do during this Pandemic (more difficult to do in toilet paper crazed N. America).
I think this behavior continue until the supply of entitled mills and trailing end of Gen X’ers start to run down and the supply of alternatively educated Gen Z children i.e. Greta lovers and trailing end of Mills start building their careers while realizing the freedom of a FAT bank acount…so when’s that? BTHOM!!
In the meantime, kiddoes, keep your family home. There’s money to be made where you are – weed grows anywhere – I think. WEED, right? Lol.
Og
#5 tkid
If Trudeau wins a minority or loses the election, it will be the NDP in power.
————————————
Not a chance. If the Liberals “lose the election” it means the Conservatives have won it, or at least achieved a minority. It’s safe to ignore that possibly.
Should the Liberals get another minority (a faint hope), the NDP will probably keep enough of their current 24 seats to still hold the balance of power on the left.
But at least then T2 might face a leadership challenge. And who is his obvious successor? Yep… her.
Around and around we go.
Rubberband.
#8 TurnerNation
Pssst: Quebec has released its deconfinement plan. 75% of adult population now vaxxed and the kids are now lining up to get their jabs.
Get prepared because you will soon need something new to fret over!
The 2008 housing bust in the USA was partly driven by parents taking out second mortgages to give to their kids so the kids could buy a house. When the end came it not only took out the kids’ equity, it hit their parents’ retirement hopes right between the eyes.
So, yes, a good part of the reason the current FOMO mania in the States is only half as bad as it is here.
In Canada right now it’s called a HELOC and the Bank of Mom. We’re not in a 1990 redux, we’re just copying our southern friends’ pre-GFC behavior.
See that light at the end of the tunnel? That’s a freight train heading your way.
Well, this is one solution:
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/minnesota-zoo-euthanizes-its-two-last-musk-oxen-because-the-state-was-getting-too-warm-for-them/ar-BB1gSmLO?ocid=msedgntp
I guess euthanizing is easier than just shaving them in the summer, like is done for domestic animals?
Collective sentiment and emotion have been amplified and distorted during this pandemic and animal spirit euphoria has brought a perversion and disconnect to both price and value.
Since all nature gravitates toward equilibrium, expect a return to some form of pre-CoViD normality and, with it, price discovery.
That said, I’ll have an order of the other side of the trade as well.
#3 S.Bby on 05.18.21 at 1:54 pm
RL lumber down again today:
Last $1,264.00 Change -63.00 (-4.75%)
————
building starts have peaked. short lumber!
The government is complicit in propping up this bubble. They have many tools they could use to cool the market but they have not. I can’t see a scenario where this ends in anything but catastrophe.
#11 Damifino on 05.18.21 at 2:30 pm
But at least then T2 might face a leadership challenge. And who is his obvious successor? Yep… her.
___
Can you just imagine her running the country? The only reason she even has a job is because of appointments following perpetual agreement with Trudeau. Obviously if you disagree with Trudeau on anything or make waves you’re kicking pebbles, but still.
I-YI-YI! and there’s a better than even possibility it’ll happen too. From a drama teacher to a Russian history Slavic languages uh, person.
It’s funny how Freeland as the the author of “Plutocrats – The rise of the new global super rich and the fall of everyone else”, is now in the Trudeau caucus dutifully making the rich FAR richer and planting her knee on the necks of the poor and the young.
But again, if she wanted to help out the less fortunate, Trudeau would have her picking herself off the front sidewalk posthaste.
#8 TurnerNation
Taste of the Danforth, the CNE & the Honda Indy.
I’ll have to put that on a future N. American vacation events not to miss list.
——————-
As for a Bel Paese vacation Canada, it is still difficult but not impossible.
Click on “Entry/exit requirements” tab (ignore Nanny State Gov Canada “Zona Rossa” highlighted text):
https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/italy
Self Declaration Form + test* within 72 hrs of arrival + 10 day isolation + test after isolation
TIP:
Find a room with a view à la James Ivory. Italia has plenty of them.
*Roma Fiumicino airport can test you upon arrival if you want, €20 or you can buy an antigen test kit anywhere in Italia at a Pharmacy, same price or less. Molecular test costs more at €70. Milano Malpensa, Venezia Marco Polo, Torino, Napoli, Firenze, Palermo (free test) etc. airports test. Fiumicino:
https://www.adr.it/aree-test-in-aeroporto
There are Covid free flights to Italia from the US and Canada, peace of mind, tested before/after the flight:
https://www.lagenziadiviaggi.it/voli-covid-tested-scatta-la-fase-due/
https://www.alitalia.com/it_it/volare-alitalia/news-e-attivita/news/voli-covid-tested-nyc.html
——————-
My Region of FVG a Zona Bianca today, almost no restrictions other than distancing and the bloody mask still except on the beach. Stadiums, crowded discos still verboten or in limited numbers. Dining, museums, swimming pools, gyms, etc. open to all.
My Region more open than the UK which is getting all the press which is fine, they have earned it.
Canada, I’d WAIT. I think Italia, Spain, Greece & others soon like France (cases per 100K in Paris** worse than anywhere in Canada) are hungry for tourist dollars and opening up way too much, way too fast.
But each his/her own on that.
**Paris
https://i.imgur.com/kd5FTPv.png
The mal investment in the RE sector was cheered and motivated by govt policies. The higher interest rates have to kick in to prevent us from spiraling into hyper inflation. The BoC now has to get a spine and stop the purchase of MBSs.
Will RE crash, correct or go sideways for the next 25 years? Don’t know. But sure is not going up.
Niagara district seems to have peaked from 20 to 30 hard offers to some sort of reality with actual contracts being prepared and 1 at a time presented.
Just like the good ole days.
#12 Millennial 1%er
Rubberband*
——–
*Man.
A favorite group. A favorite TV Channel. A favorite song.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ia9hA2UPbaw
Ya, it’ll be in your head until tomorrow and, I miss bell bottoms (and Bob Marley).
#19 IHCTD9
“The only reason she even has a job is because of appointments following perpetual agreement with Trudeau. Obviously if you disagree with Trudeau on anything or make waves you’re kicking pebbles, but still.”
This is not an Ottawa problem – this is everyday politricks in Canada right now. It’s happening in Alberta, BC, Manitoba and Quebec. “Accept the narrative or leave.” Under the guise of “woke” – the purges continue throughout our bureaucracy and military. What is actually going on behind the scenes? I don’t know but you’re absolutely right to call out Freeland’s two faces. Everything is upside down right now.
Now I’m not going to say it’s different this time because it’s not. It never is but consider this for a minute, as life spans increase wouldn’t the value of home increase along side? Now I’m not suggesting that increasing values are a result of people living longer and healthier lives. I’m just pointing out that the true value (not the current bubble value) would be higher today than 50 years ago.
#114 BillyBob on 05.18.21 at 1:40 pm
I asked Garth to pass you my contact info several days ago. He graciously did so. If you wanted to offer a truce beer or anything anything besides tough-guy showboat, you would have contacted me that way and saved us all the time.
All of the nipping at the edges of the real estate mania in Canada has resulted in precisely nothing. Thus middle ground does not exist anymore. It will take extreme event where entire housing market and potentially economy is burned to the ground before populace is forced into submission and change its ways. Chances of this happening are next to nothing. As a result we are looking at failed/lost decades and generations ahead of us.
It’s worth remembering how massive an impact residential real estate has on Canadian society. Its share of the GDP is greater than the entire oil & gas and mining sectors. Over-investment in housing has helped tank RRSP contributions and throttle funds going into TFSAs. Many will regret that. House sales over the last couple of years were up 75% in Canada, compared with 13% in the US. Residential prices here just climbed 32% while the increase Stateside was 17% – and even that has caused Americans to gag.
Look at this bank chart of Canadian and American prices. Have we lost our minds?
yes we have lost our minds. At least some of us. When the music stops a lot of people are going to be hurting. The housing crash in the 1990’s, people rode it out – the house was worth less than what they had paid but they rode it out and ten years later prices had caught up. This time, prices have gone up so much that maybe prices don’t catch up in ten years. I’m talking about a real estate depression.
Leftover So, yes, a good part of the reason the current FOMO mania in the States is only half as bad as it is here.
See that light at the end of the tunnel? That’s a freight train heading our way.
yep
Hi prices in a handful of cities are due to offshore money. Fact.
Fiction. – Garth
Bless her and her anthropomorphic prowess.
She reminds me of a few …
As has been predicted on this blog: (Charlotte Observer article).
Bank of America’s workforce will return to the office in stages, starting with the workers whose jobs would be “significantly enhanced from being in the office,” according to a company memo obtained by The Charlotte Observer.
Currently, only 24,000 employees are working in their offices (including branches) out of a total of 208,000 workers. Gradually, phases of employees will be returned to their offices, with at least 30 days notice, according to the memo. Systems infrastructure employees were cited as one group that would return to the office before others.
“Our plans will be guided by clear principles: we will move slowly and carefully, driven by business need, with safety as our highest priority,” the memo said. The bank employs 16,000 in Charlotte, where it is headquartered.
Business travel and in-person events are still prohibited through July, except when approved by a senior executive. The company told employees to not visit the office or attend in-person meetings until the bank says otherwise. In the coming weeks, each line of business will provide specific guidelines for when in-person client meetings can resume, according to the memo.
Banks, unlike many other industries, have held up relatively well to the economic devastation of the coronavirus pandemic. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan, along with a number of his peers, committed to no company layoffs in the pandemic. The bank has also announced plans to donate $100 million to help communities hurt by the coronavirus. Still, Bank of America’s pre-tax income fell by about half in the first quarter as it set aside billions in reserve to prepare for coming defaults from consumers and businesses.
Luv the pix! ATTITUDE is right! LOL
Thanks to high inflation, goods and wages could be much higher in five years when new mortgages renew, and today’s overleverage will look much less severe. There’s no guarantee of any significant price pullback.
Nothing goes on forever and smart people know that.
Fella that owns out shop was chatting with me yesterday. He’s in a pretty defensive position right know and is planning to be quite conservative over the next while.
Why so when things are so busy and everyone’s spending so much money?
He feels there’s been so much demand pulled ahead the last year he knows there’s going to be a void left at some point, likely starting this fall. We and every other cabinet and millwork shop has been overwhelmed this last year. Residential clients want that new kitchen and bath. Commercial and institutional clients have had empty shops and office buildings the last year so it’s a great time to renovate common areas, offices, washrooms etc…
Problem is this was mostly unplanned spending, brought on by ideal conditions. The work we do is durable and not disposable- this stuff will be in place for 25 years. It’s kind of a once and done thing.
Now as life returns to some normalcy, all this stuff has been completed…. then what? It’s the same with all the softwood lumber- everyone built their deck, fence and shed when they were off for covid- these are durable projects that won’t need redone for years.
Smart people know we’ve pulled ahead massive amounts of demand with ideal logistics and cheap money. It would seem to some like my shop’s owner that there’s nothing behind this surge in demand to keep it going.
The loonie is at 83 cents.
Does that mean investors like what they see in Canada?
When I came to God’s Country (my neighbors words, not mine in 77, the loonie was at 1.25.
Could it happen again?
Regarding today’s blog: my hypothesis remains that the pop in all the speculative equity and crypto crapcos will be followed by a deflation of RE madness. This will happen through the wealth effect and through the disappearance of paper gains that were the foundation of confidence. Brian’s chpc.biz site shows some correlation between RE and bitcoin, so there is evidence. Time will tell.
Billy Bob
Chilly 11C in beautiful Victoria today (25+ Faronheit). Will have to put on some extra layers for the trail ride today. But I’m still holding out hope we can get a Coors Lite, that delicious brew, together later when he finishes his “work”.
—————–
“Faronheit”
Very clever, or a Freudian Slip or just a good old fashioned misgespeltes word.
#5 tkid
… The Conservatives don’t stand a chance of winning.
*********
Agree. What they can afford? Nothing!
Lib’s promised that RE price not fall. Applauds! This promises looks like they promised that in Canada never been winter again or no sunset forever.
BUT! Canadians who have no mortgage – double happy. Canadians who just bought – happy! RE will generating income – not necessary to work hard.
If lib’s promise something in addition (and will keep promises) for pensioners and low incomes people (like increase minimum salary) – they will have huge majority.
Cons doesn’t have any serious programs in RE, economy etc. Cons need new leader who will tell Canadians about reality and will have clear economy plan.
Compare with cons, NDP has something what may attract people – in housing for instance.
New stress test – ridiculous! Banksters not follow old one in reality, same will be with new. Always exist backdoor. It is not solution or just temporary solution. If stress test worked how would be possible that household with total income 100000 buy house for 1 million?
I rent.
In all the years I have rented, my entire life… there has never been a tax deductible, rebate, write off, nada, nothing.
It seems to me the government wants people to own and encourages it with these first time buyer, primary resident, tax rebate, home owner upgrade rebate, tons of it… and us renters, get ZIP.
Be nice to see some rebates for renters for a change.
To top it off, I was told to cut down on my overtime, and I mentioned I would advise my co-worker as well of the reduced overtime… and the boss goes ‘yeah not her, she has a mortgage, she needs the money’.
Whaaaaa? :|
#113 IHCTD9 on 05.18.21 at 1:12 pm
#107 Faron on 05.18.21 at 12:16 pm
@IHTCD9
Sounds like what you saw.
https://www.vicnews.com/trending-now/more-strings-of-lights-reported-in-coastal-b-c-s-night-skies/amp/
___
Yep – lots of vids on YouTube of the SL satellites, it’s just what the article describes. Very bright, impossible to miss. Distracting even.
————-
I think what you’re referring to is the “thousand points of light” inaugural speech by George W. Bush.
Which was parodied by Neil Young in “Keep on rocking in the free World”.
Love that song.
#27 Grandv!ew on 05.18.21 at 4:02 pm
All of the nipping at the edges of the real estate mania in Canada has resulted in precisely nothing. Thus middle ground does not exist anymore. It will take extreme event where entire housing market and potentially economy is burned to the ground before populace is forced into submission and change its ways. Chances of this happening are next to nothing. As a result we are looking at failed/lost decades and generations ahead of us.
—- —
Pretty much. We voted for Trudeau, now a junk GTA garage on a 20’ lot costs 3/4 million. Our deficit was under 1 billion prior to Trudeau, today we run CV deficits in the HUNDREDS of billions. What have we got right now, 15-16 million people with a job shouldering a total government debt of around 2 Trillion? Yeah, we’re in great shape to prosper.
And we voted him right back in again… thus the SHTF requirement.
#15 Sail Away on 05.18.21 at 2:58 pm
Well, this is one solution:
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/minnesota-zoo-euthanizes-its-two-last-musk-oxen-because-the-state-was-getting-too-warm-for-them/ar-BB1gSmLO?ocid=msedgntp
I guess euthanizing is easier than just shaving them in the summer, like is done for domestic animals?
——————
All I read was “Musk” and “euthanizing”.
Well, I just leave it there, this is not Holland.
IHCTD9 – agreed.
A couple of years ago I had a co-worker come into my office on a daily basis to talk about his kids. He must had told me 50 times that his daughter had bought her first house. He forked over the down payment naturally.“She’ll be fine now”, he’d say, as if nothing could ever go wrong in her life from that moment forward. Dumb. Parent madness I’d say.
#40 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.18.21 at 5:19 pm
#113 IHCTD9 on 05.18.21 at 1:12 pm
I think what you’re referring to is the “thousand points of light” inaugural speech by George W. Bush.
Which was parodied by Neil Young in “Keep on rocking in the free World”.
Love that song.
———
Yep that one’s a goodie. I prefer a piece from another Canadian though, better message:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2l6JUNFAJ9o
He’s a fellow BC’er to you!
Riddle me this: Trudeau says he wants a Canadian supply of vaccines. So we have a Canadian developed COVID vaccine ready to go, but Trudeau instead decides to thumb his nose at it and give $100 million to a U.S. company. Why is that?
Simple; the Canadian owned and operated company is in Calgary. The U.S. owned one has a branch office in Mississauga. No votes for Trudeau in Alberta and he figures he can buy votes in Ontario.
And you thought Trudeau gave a crap about vaccine security. It’s all about how many votes per dollar Trudeau can buy.
My younger colleague (31-32ish) got engaged and then went house shopping in Milton last fall. Their 2-3 lost bid battles were really fierce but in the end they got a town for about 800K. They got family help for the dp to make it happen.
The sad part is while they have no problem making the payments as long as they both work, if they start a family…it’ll get tight, so basically the house will dictate their parenting choice/timing.
Sadly, it’s the Boomer Moister political madness that laid the groundwork for this. Flaherty and Harper started this house-mania and now it’s an out-of-control train heading for….god only knows.
This may be the last big gift that Boomer Moisters leave for the the next generations, right up on top with climate crisis.
We’ve already been run over by you, Boomer Moisters.
That’s why we’re willing to be part of the change now, before it’s too late.
my MIL says “just get in the market” and I say “and pay double Land Transfer Tax and bloated prices, why?”
and she says “just get in the market”
Thank dog my wife is reasonable!
#37 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.18.21 at 5:08 pm
—————–
“Faronheit”
—
Razor sharp. Took kids until about 5th grade to come up with that one. 3rd grade for ferret. But, hey, that’s one level up from poopoo head and dumdum face. BillyBob and The Jaguar are in their 50’s? 60’s? Nice.
#26 Faron on 05.18.21 at 4:00 pm
#114 BillyBob on 05.18.21 at 1:40 pm
I asked Garth to pass you my contact info several days ago. He graciously did so. If you wanted to offer a truce beer or anything anything besides tough-guy showboat, you would have contacted me that way and saved us all the time.
============================
Truces are for people at war. Is that how you view our exchanges? Goodness. I’m just here for a laugh (and the dog pics.)
I haven’t seen anything from Garth, probably because I wouldn’t use a linked email address on a public forum. That’s just basic internet privacy hygiene.
However our little group of cyclists will be at Maude’s around 5pm onwards after the ride. I don’t think they serve Coors Lite but you’re welcome to join, it’s a friendly group. Wear your BLM t-shirt so I know which dude-bro is you. You’ll know who I am cause, you’ve got me all figured out right?
We can take selfies and stuff. Ta for now!
http://www.maudehunterspub.ca
“It’s never different”
Agreed, have a look at the link to this Canadian 40 year RE graph. Click on the MAX tab on the top. You will see a nice predictable, 30 degree incline in housing over the duration shown. With T2 spending like he has an infinite credit card (cause he does) you know inflation will be running very hot, for many years to come.
https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/housing-index
If you buy & hold, you’re as good as Gold…
The question all Canadians should be asking themselves is if there is a future for not only you but your kids as well? You kids will not be able to afford a house on top of all the taxes that are coming. There is no future for the middle and lower class….I suggest you think about moving out of Canada.
This is what you see on TriDelta’s website ….
The TriDelta Difference
Our goal is to provide complete financial peace of mind for families and individuals.
Just a few weeks ago (April 2021), the head of TriDelta tried selling me on his plan to take on debt to finance some of his firm’s suggested investments.
I was seriously considering it but it sounded too sketchy for me. In the end, I decided not to move forward with his proposed strategy. Good thing I didn’t as one of the companies he was pushing was Bridging Finance, which by now, you may have heard, was most likely a huge fraud, with kickbacks being made to the CEO of the company. The OSC is currently investigating him and have alleged several wrongdoings.
https://financialpost.com/fp-finance/banking/bridging-finance-ceo-closed-his-personal-account-four-days-after-being-questioned-about-payments
I don’t think I would have had much peace of mind if I had decided to listen to him! I can surely imagine their are dozens or even hundreds of his investors demanding an explanation. He would have made a significant commission on these sales in his capacity as financial advisor. His investors, on the other hand, will be paying off their loans out of their own pockets for years to come!
#33 Tulips. “Thanks to high inflation, goods and wages could be much higher in five years when new mortgages renew, and today’s overleverage will look much less severe. There’s no guarantee of any significant price pullback.”
Tulips? How ironic!
#44 Bezengy on 05.18.21 at 5:30 pm
A couple of years ago I had a co-worker come into my office on a daily basis to talk about his kids. He must had told me 50 times that his daughter had bought her first house. He forked over the down payment naturally.“She’ll be fine now”, he’d say, as if nothing could ever go wrong in her life from that moment forward. Dumb. Parent madness I’d say.
————-
You’re so right.
You can have the smartest people, but when it comes helping out their kids buying a property, they are as dumb as a rock.
Same for Universities.
The pressure on the kids and the parents to get into the “best University” is just insane.
This is particularly true for the States.
The extra money spent on getting into the best rather than just into an average one, is just not worth it, IMO.
Parents have the misguided belief that they are helping.
Money given is never as appreciated as money earned.
This is a huge reason why we now have decided to leave Canada. This bubble may or may not blow but if it does we are in for one heck of a problem. If it doesn’t we will never own a home here, which is not a big deal in itself but when you rent and keep having to move as they decide to sell it becomes a problem. Also the fact that renting cost the same as a mortgage in Canada at this point. If you have a high demand job, look outside of Canada for a life. I am pretty sure we are just one of many now making this decision.
#26 Faron on 05.18.21 at 4:00 pm
A new low Faron. Garth does enough and gives enough already, don’t make him your personal messenger boy for your continual internet spats.
#15 Sail Away on 05.18.21 at 2:58 pm
Well, this is one solution:
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/minnesota-zoo-euthanizes-its-two-last-musk-oxen-because-the-state-was-getting-too-warm-for-them/ar-BB1gSmLO?ocid=msedgntp
I guess euthanizing is easier than just shaving them in the summer, like is done for domestic animals?
———————————————
“Average monthly temperatures last June reached 22.7 C in the Twin Cities, up from 20.6 C for the month in 2010, according to the National Weather Service . A University of Massachusetts analysis found Minnesota has warmed by 1.4 C since 1895, a rate higher than the global average.”
1.4 degrees in 125 years is enough to put down animals? Me thinks the animals were old is the real reason, and probably always were distressed in the summer.
Daily highs in the Yukon average near 20 degrees in June:
https://www.currentresults.com/Weather/Canada/Yukon/temperature-june.php
I don’t think you need to shave them because they shed in the spring:
“Musk oxen have an extremely thick, two-layered coat: the outermost “guard hairs” cover a shorter layer of “qiviut” hairs. Qiviut hairs are considered one of the world’s warmest natural fibres and musk oxen shed these hairs at the start of spring”
https://www.discoverwildlife.com/animal-facts/mammals/facts-about-musk-ox/
I sense a narrative. More likely budget cuts and the animals were too old to say move to Calgary. Seems no story can be complete unless the words “climate change” are in it.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-18/the-second-largest-country-in-the-world-is-running-out-of-land?srnd=premium-canada
Posted several times. We get it. – Garth
A world without even one of the big pipelines…well we now have a hint of what that would be like. 7% dividend is just fine Garth…thankyou.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-18/the-second-largest-country-in-the-world-is-running-out-of-land?srnd=premium-canada —
#18 Peter pickles on 05.18.21 at 3:18 pm
The government is complicit in propping up this bubble. They have many tools they could use to cool the market but they have not. I can’t see a scenario where this ends in anything but catastrophe.
————————————
I see a more benign ending in line with where things “big picture” have been going for years. Once inflation takes hold in the broader market interest rates will rise and home prices will at the very least stabilize if not drop a bit. The inflation, higher rates, and stabilization of the housing market will last a very long time, much longer than anyone expects.
The reason I believe this is because money isn’t real, it is just a way of relatively measuring the value of various goods and services of differing content, including labor. So you can’t have one particular commodity running up like housing has without the “laws” of economics coming into play and affecting the prices of everything else. As prices get out of hand demand falls, substitution and supply comes in (condos, more residents per household, new builds, infills, people move, etc.). But more importantly the very fact that there are now so many house millionaires means the money supply will eventually go way up, causing all prices to rise. Everyone has to sell eventually, even if it is done by your executor.
Inflation has been away of life since 1971. It won’t go away. But not everything rises at the same time. Houses were susceptible to becoming a bubble because it is one area where if you can fog a mirror you can borrow insane amounts of money. You can’t get into Bitcoin or stocks that way, you have to bring cash. (You can use margin on stocks but nowhere near what you can on a house.) You can’t buy a car that way because the car financers want the vehicle paid off before it dies (72 months is about as long as you can go). Even commercial real estate cannot be leveraged like a house can, even though the properties are much longer lasting and produce revenue.
Eventually the last greater fool will have dedicated as much of his income as he can to housing. At that point prices will stop going up. They have to, barring some sort of massive wage driven inflation. Doesn’t mean they will suddenly drop though. The only thing that can cause that is a large rise in interest rates, which I don’t think we’ll see.
Parents that are falling all over themselves to hang economic anchors onto their offspring obviously didn’t learn much along the way to a head full of gray/no hair. Oh well. Somebody’s gotta fund those bank divvies!
In other news, this seems to be a good look at the historical impact of inflation:
https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2021/05/18/inflation-doesnt-have-to-crash-the-stock-market/
Garth,
Why do you always ignore the immigration part? Where and how do we fit those bodies? supply and demand article next time? would be interesting to see your stance.
Immigration benefits Canada. End of story. – Garth
“But at least then T2 might face a leadership challenge. And who is his obvious successor? Yep… her.”
One can hope. The prevaricating Prince of Papineau has had one too many mulligans for my liking.
#51 BillyBob on 05.18.21 at 5:54 pm
#26 Faron on 05.18.21 at 4:00 pm
#114 BillyBob on 05.18.21 at 1:40 pm
I asked Garth to pass you my contact info several days ago. He graciously did so. If you wanted to offer a truce beer or anything anything besides tough-guy showboat, you would have contacted me that way and saved us all the time.
———————————————
Is this a dating site now?
@#51 BillyBob on 05.18.21 at 5:54 pm
Wish I could be at Maude’s today. I don’t own any BLM or Black Bloc gear, but you could pick me out from the crowd by my shoes:
https://iloveahangar.com/collections/canadian-warplane-heritage-museum
Easiest way to explain it? It makes some people feel part of a club.
I go into the kitchen at work last week to make a coffee and two female co workers were clucking because one was relaying all the details about building a new house. All the chaos, drama is actually what people want because it becomes a social outlet.
I don’t think I’m getting many bites if I start talking about how I increased the value tilt in my portfolio over the past 6 months.
@#53 Da Da Da
“There is no future for the middle and lower class…”
++++
The “lower class”(?) gets to draw CERB or UBI in the new world order.
They win.
All other working plebes will be taxed into the lower class.
No one will pay taxes.
Everyone who is loyal will draw govt pay ( just like Venezuela)
Then the ponzie must start all over.
P.S. No one can afford to move.
Sometimes I wonder what is really going on?
Australia announces no cash in casinos, done. No more worries about dirty money coming in through that avenue.
So why doesn’t Canada?
Oh, Saanich in Victoria wanted to open a casino but was turned down.
As for the 5.5% stress test in two weeks, really, in two weeks? How about years ago when affordability was unattainable to the average person.
So the average person is on their own. It is getting worse out here. People are worried sick about getting an eviction notice and move were? These are people with kids. Wake up!
As for leadership, I leaning towards Erin O’Toole, he is saying words that I agree with and is flexable in thinking.
Trudeau has been in too many scandals to believe him and printing too much money. Other countries leaders with one scandal step down. So, why is he still there?
Listened to a video on Ian Lee on why Canada is going down or something like that. He thinks for 15 to 20 years. Hope you find the video as I don’t have those fancy, dancing fingers.
Why wipe out the middle class?
#59 Nonplused on 05.18.21 at 6:28 pm
#15 Sail Away on 05.18.21 at 2:58 pm
Re: Minnesota zoo muskox
I sense a narrative. More likely budget cuts and the animals were too old to say move to Calgary. Seems no story can be complete unless the words “climate change” are in it.
———-
Yes, you’re probably right. I especially like this line from the article:
“It seems even Minnesota has now become too far south for this species to thrive,” the zoo said.
Um… yes. Otherwise, muskox would probably live in Minnesota instead of thousands of miles away in the high arctic, dont’cha think?
“Immigration benefits Canada. End of story. – Garth”
I think this is true when the metrics used to measure success are the unemployment rate and average salary. Obviously you would have to smooth the numbers, but if Canada is absorbing immigrants with say a 4% unemployment rate and wages are rising at or above inflation, then that means the Canadian economy is absorbing the immigrants and we need the additional labor.
I think, however, it is a mistake to assume that just stuffing more immigrants in will cause a rise in the GDP. That may have been true while the British were trying to settle the vast land and harness its’ economic potential, but that’s been done. Now it is dependent on GDP growth and demographics, IMHO. But we have an aging population and low birth rate, so immigration is the obvious solution. Except near Penhold. They have crazy amounts of kids around Penhold.
Immigrants are a funny bunch. Sure, some of them drive cabs. But some of them can program computers or end up owning the franchise for 3 7-11’s or Subways. It takes a lot of gumption to decide to up and leave your place of birth for brighter prospects, so a lot of these people are exactly the kind you would want to drive economic growth.
‘Immigrants are a funny bunch.’ Wow. Imagine what they say about us. – Garth
https://www.macleans.ca/longforms/canadian-real-estate-market-housing-2021/
DELETED
What is really scary is even a 32% correction in many of these markets wouldn’t return prices to what could be called truly affordable.
Immigration benefits Canada. End of story. – Garth
=====
Must be late in the day out East :-)
I believe the poster was bringing attention to the effect of immigration on housing and wondering where that particular cog fits in the grand scheme of things..as in they will have to be housed somewhere.
It would make for a good article,I subscribe to that suggestion.
Sigh. Immigration levels have been consistent around 1% of the population for a generation. Except this year. Newcomer levels plunged. House prices went nuts. End of story. – Garth
“Posted several times. We get it. – Garth”
I didn’t read it but I’ve been back and forth from one side of this country to the other, by road, more times than I would have ever tried to count and I don’t get it.
#63 Nonplused- YOu are hoping reaaally hard~~
Good luck.
#99 IHCTD9 on 05.18.21 at 10:07 am
Ever watched the movie “Catch me if you can”?
___________________________
Guessing a Bruce Dickenson reference
I read his bio from the $8 bin. Early part of his success a fluke. Then he achieved through tenacious work.
#71 Entrepreneur on 05.18.21 at 7:23 pm
“Why wipe out the middle class?”
I see little evidence that the middle class is being “wiped out”. When I try and book a camp ground it is nearly impossible. When I visit my RV dealer they don’t have much stock. When I go skiing on the weekends the lift lines are long and you can’t get food before 1:30. When I go hiking there are SUV’s parked all up and down the ditches because the parking lots are full. When I go to Costco it is busy, and many people are hauling out 60 inch TV’s. When I drive (or ride) around on a nice day there are Harley’s everywhere and even more metric bikes everywhere else. When I go boating I use the new launch the natives built on their reserve because everywhere else is silly with boats, and the lake is silly with boats too. (The native boat launch is like daily paid parking. They make money.) The Alberta government is freaking out because there are so many off-roaders wrecking the bogs with their quads and 4×4’s. They and their kids all have iPhones. And now with at home learning a laptop, if they didn’t before.
These are not poor people.
The middle class is doing ok. Ya, everything is financed. But money isn’t real, it’s just numbers.
None of the King Henry’s ever had a quad or a 60 inch TV or an iPhone.
Let them all go broke while you wait on the sidelines until the markets hit rock bottom then pick up your dream homes for a fraction of their prices
Moister madness — Greater Fool – Authored by Garth Turner – The Troubled Future of Real Estate https://shar.es/aoMS5G
Garth, I already called the RE peak -March. Flat from here. Prices will flatten and dip in the later half of the year.
Real problems won’t show unless we get real overnight rate changes where rates go up.
it is going to flatten out. But not because of the increase to the stress test, but because stimulus is ending. Plain and simple. Excess cash be gone, be invested, be spent on another new house.
Now what?
#117 BillyBob on 05.18.21 at 2:35 pm
You nailed it. I rest my case on that right there!
#51 BillyBob on 05.18.21 at 5:54 pm
So I’ll be looking for a guy who is 4’10” and wearing baggy, czech themed lycra?
#71 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.17.21 at 8:22 pm
#70 nonplused
Re: Wasps
They only go for meat and sugary food.
So if your a vegetarian and don’t have a sweet tooth, they should not bother you.
Also, we always put some raw meat pieces about 10 feet from the table.
That keeps them occupied.
———————————-
Why would a vegetarian have raw pieces of meat? Thus I use traps. And nuke chemicals when necessary.
I also use mosquito traps and coils. I don’t mind nature, but not on my deck.
What’s next for Kanada. Why so soon after a ‘global pandemic’ was declared was also the WEXIT marketing campaign kicked off? To what purpose?
This video from 2014 has surfaced. 8-10 minutes in it has the potential oil pipeline, railway maps. (Now you why Buffet, Gates own our railways).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnwPSPkC2j8
“How Alberta can become the catalyst for a fractured Canada”
Yep this all was planed years, decades ago.
—
–Why do we have now armed checkpoints, bubbles, and virtual Berlin Walls? It’s all a TEST to see how it would work out
Yes Globalists are Balkanizing us. In March 2020 we fell in a week long soft coup.
—- What’s next?
The UN is imposing this new law on us. Sure it sounds good. But by the same token could be used to take back all the oil, gas and mining land. They wouldn’t would they? Why do you think the country has been shut down for past 450 days…for your health?
.The Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP or DOTROIP
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_on_the_Rights_of_Indigenous_Peoples
Land rights from ownership (including reparation, or return of land i.e. Article 10) to environmental issues (Articles 26 – 30, and 32
https://parl.ca/DocumentViewer/en/43-2/bill/C-15/first-reading
SUMMARY
An Act respecting the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples
..especially their rights to their lands, territories and resources;
Wake up Canada, we are not a democracy. The leader of each party sets the rules each member must follow whether that member’s constituents feel otherwise. It is a dictatorship voted in each election. The average person has no say. A true democracy would have your member of the legislature vote his constituents wants/needs, not the dictate of his/her leader. If a member voices concerns on his party’s stance he is thrown of the party.
“Immigration benefits Canada. End of story. – Garth”
Yes because it brings in more taxpayers, which is obviously very necessary especially these days.
#68 the Jaguar on 05.18.21 at 7:08 pm
Welp, you missed it. SA showed up twerking all a-thong. BillyBob had to tape his glasses and adjust his plastic cap’n lapel pin. Nonplussed mused in the corner about positiinal neutrality at the options desk while texting his wife that he wants plain mashed potatoes with dinner and can you please put pat roberts on? TurnerNation sat in the balcony watching the scene while munching Hawkins Cheezies (I think he thinks we are in a collab with GatesEpstein shhhhh). Garth stood behind the bar and yelled at us to get-the-hell-outta-here while plinking shot glasses off of Ponz’s forehead. Crowdie pharted. Thee end
73 Nonplused on 05.18.21 at 7:31 pm
Immigrants are a funny bunch. Sure, some of them drive cabs. But some of them can program computers or end up owning the franchise for 3 7-11’s or Subways.
Man – you need to watch what you’re saying. To me, you feel like you’re better than people that don’t look like you. Check your writing style. Or better yet, read the words inside the cover.
Wake up Canada, we are not a democracy. The leader of each party sets the rules each member must follow whether that member’s constituents feel otherwise. It is a dictatorship voted in each election. The average person has no say. A true democracy would have your member of the legislature vote his constituents wants/needs, not the dictate of his/her leader. If a member voices concerns on his party’s stance he is thrown of the party.
,,,,,
LOL are you my nephew?
#73 Don on 05.18.21 at 7:46 pm
#63 Nonplused- YOu are hoping reaaally hard~~
Good luck.
————————————–
Don’t think so. I don’t have any skin in the game other than what they might do with taxes. The house is paid for so for me it doesn’t really matter whether it goes up or down other than taxes. It can go to zero and I can still live in it. However a capital gains tax on houses could really affect my children. As always taxes affect the children, not the parents. If I died right now, my children might all be able to all afford a townhouse with a small garage. If they put in a capital gains tax, no garage.
But a small thing, complete disaster and my children could still live in the house. Given how they fight that wouldn’t be great, but it is better than no roof. Maybe they will sort it out.
Folks, when wondering why you can’t afford a house; it’s probably your parent’s fault. They didn’t do well economically, and they were unable to teach you how to either. Not through direct advice, and not through example. You grew up not knowing why an engineering degree or a journeyman’s technical degree or even learning how to operate a suck truck was a good idea. Heck folk lift operators do ok, can you do that?
I suggest all kids that don’t think they can make their way go on YouTube and review Mike Rowe’s “Dirty Jobs”.
I’ll never forget the day I called up my suck truck guy and he sent the truck with his 20 year old daughter running it. I was flabbergasted. I did not expect to see a good looking 20 year old girl running a suck truck. I asked her about it and she said “I need money for school”. Dad was willing to provide if she contributed to the business. She had to earn it. Hauling hoses around and sucking up shit. Mind you she also grew up with her own horse because they were also running a bit of a ranch. So horse shit was not foreign to her.
After seeing the 20 year old suck truck girl sucking all my solids out of the septic tank, I could never believe there wasn’t a way. There just isn’t a will. “When there is a will, there is a way” as my friend who was a son of a truck driver used to say. Ya, they also did ok. Father had his own truck and pup. Not rich, but he had his own truck, pup, house, 1/2 ton truck, camping trailer, and retired in the boonies.
The reason you aren’t happy is because you think Dog should have given you a Tesla and a penthouse suite right downtown. If you were raised without these kinds of ideas, you would be happy with what you got. Billions of people are.
@Nonplused
“Eventually the last greater fool will have dedicated as much of his income as he can to housing. At that point prices will stop going up. They have to, barring some sort of massive wage driven inflation. Doesn’t mean they will suddenly drop though. The only thing that can cause that is a large rise in interest rates, which I don’t think we’ll see.”
Consumers could also stop spending leading to a cascading effect. Less money to spend unless the wage unicorn gifts some large wage increases.
Heard about the following from a friend who got these from his RE agent friend:
1. rate will not go up, government will not allow it to go up since T2 are deeply in debt.
2. T2 will keep borrowing, the only way hedging your money is buying houses
3. 90k new immigrants, they are buying since now they don’t need to pay the 15%
4. CMHC is predicting a 30% up of house price
5. buy now, or never.
just to share some “insights” on how FOMO has been created. the funnest one is No 4, the same CMHC was predicting 18% down last year….
sometimes I just wonder, a RE agent gets commision as long as there is a deal, why this community has always been selling FOMO to potential buyers? When will they start selling same FOMO to property owners, especially to those multi-property owners?
There was a time decades ago when real estate was practically worthless as a commodity. No one cared one way or the other. Owning a Firebird on the other hand, with a big block engine was the coolest thing going.
Owning a house was more, a pain in the ass, and pointless unless one chose it to raise a family. Why else are there three or four bedrooms?
Today it’s a status symbol for many regardless of its intended use in the first place.
Buying dilapidated properties in the downtown ,( built when?) at exorbitant prices is foolhardy at the best of times. Hell, buying an undersized apartment commonly known as a condo just shows the mindset of those with no clue. And the current selling prices?
No wonder-why I’ve lost my faith in humanity. God help us…
Now that wasp topick is steel keep going on strong, my 2c. Last year i had some wasp problem, dident bother me much, but i had to do something because wifi told me to.
So i used clear soda bottle trap very easi to make, some wire to hang some row meat, raw chickens and my trick to get them in, in large numbers and to make sure that they stay i used St. Bernardus ABT 12 Quadrupel Beer for as a bate. I think that thay dident even care about meat/chicken.
At first few days i thought i doesn’t work, but after few days when “liquid” evaporated, i was lefty with sold 4 inches of dead wasps and some green flys.
I got this idea from hold hold my beer and watch this. Worked !!!
Just as I thought. Didn’t show. We were only there for about 45 min, six of us today.
I even sent one of the girls over to some dork in a “Geology Rocks” t-shirt and told her to ask if he was “poo poo head dum dum”, but all she got was an odd look. I guess I should have given her your real name to ask but you were so sensitive about that the last time.
Anyway, your loss, I tried. Had to drink the Blue Buck I bought for you myself.
Have to admit I’m a bit disappointed, but not surprised. Keyboard warriors are usually pretty timid IRL. Just thought it’d be nice to speak civilly face to face.
The reason Canada’s house prices are out of control is because we have such a limited area that is considered desirable to live. The US has their entire country but we have Victoria, the lower mainland, southern Ontario and possibly Montreal. That’s a small land base for 38000000
You need to get out more. – Garth
#90 oops on 05.18.21 at 8:38 pm
73 Nonplused on 05.18.21 at 7:31 pm
Immigrants are a funny bunch. Sure, some of them drive cabs. But some of them can program computers or end up owning the franchise for 3 7-11’s or Subways.
Man – you need to watch what you’re saying. To me, you feel like you’re better than people that don’t look like you. Check your writing style. Or better yet, read the words inside the cover.
———————————–
Hmm, some of the people I was describing do look like me, even if they sound different. (Eastern Europeans) Some of the people that come from India sound more English than I do, even though they don’t look as English as I do.
The problem is that “intersectionality” is more sexist and racist than anything we had before it since the slave trade was stopped. I say “an immigrant is driving a cab” and everyone assume I meant a Pakistani. Nope. He was from Serbia.
My doctor is also from Eastern Europe. Also an immigrant. Not all immigrants are defined by their color. None should be.
“‘Immigrants are a funny bunch.’ Wow. Imagine what they say about us. – Garth”
I am friends with many of them, partly about half the neighbors, partly about half the soccer parents on my son’s team (they don’t like hockey so much), partly through work. Ya, they also think we are a funny bunch. They particularly don’t understand why we are complaining all the time.
#99 Nonplused on 05.18.21 at 9:53 pm
“‘Immigrants are a funny bunch.’ Wow. Imagine what they say about us. – Garth”
PS – If there is a Liberal conspiracy to swing the vote right based on immigrants, I suspect the left is in for a big surprise. Almost half of my social group is immigrants, and I can tell you for sure that is exactly what they were moving away from. They didn’t come here because they wanted more socialism and poverty than what they had. Canada was a chance to get away from that, and the brave took it.
Ok, so what if we want to pay 100,000 more – on a 1.25 million home that’s less than 9% over. You make it seem like its tons of money. It barely changes our payment.
That’s the same % as paying 435k for a 400k house. But you don’t say the percentages to make it sound much worse – almost fear mongering.
Everyone older than us just seems jealous. You guys need to get over it. We can afford it, don’t worry about us as much as you can’t understand it.
* left, not right.
@#98 Unreal
“The US has their entire country but we have Victoria, the lower mainland, southern Ontario and possibly Montreal…”
+++
My God.
The vapid statements from the Lower Brainland never cease to amaze.
I remember crashing a party in the early 80’s at SFU.
One of the mingling staff asked me what I was “Majoring in”
“Beer”, I responded as I held up a can of stolen Kokanee.
She assumed I was one of the jocks there on an athletic scholarship and asked where I came from.
“Back East”, I grunted.
“Oh! You’re from Ontario!”
“Nope, further east.”
Puzzled and somewhat unsure she stabbed in the dark, “Quebec? But, but…. You don’t have a French accent.”
“Further east” , was my unhelpful reply.
“What’s further east than Quebec?” asked the confused University staff member.
“The Maritimes? Lobster? Students here? The work force that emigrates to the rest of Canada to find work? ”
Yes….unreal….just like many , many many grossly uninformed, nationally ignorant, BC residents ……
You need to spend some time seeing the rest of Canada rather than Hawaii or Mexico for the umpteenth time.
So funny!
“Attitude” was exactly what I thought when I saw today’s feature hound.
Paws crossed and those eyes….. oh those eyes!
@#97 BillyBob
No one there with a manbun lurking in the shadows glancing sideways at you?
#98 Vanreal on 05.18.21 at 9:35 pm
The reason Canada’s house prices are out of control is because we have such a limited area that is considered desirable to live. The US has their entire country but we have Victoria, the lower mainland, southern Ontario and possibly Montreal. That’s a small land base for 38000000
You need to get out more. – Garth
________________
Not sure that is prudent advice! And I don’t think they offer day passes where zhe is staying …
#90 Oops
I don’t think Nonplused was trying to be derogatory, despite his awkward phrasing. I think he was trying to say that immigrants can no longer be pegged as only being good for fulfilling specific (and in the past, often “cheap”) labour needs because many of today’s newcomers are well-educated and/or business savvy and have diverse skill sets that are drivers for the economy and GDP. (Also, keep in mind that new entrants come from various nations and many of them probably do look just like him whatever he happens to look like). That’s what I got anyways, especially when I read this:
“It takes a lot of gumption to decide to up and leave your place of birth for brighter prospects, so a lot of these people are exactly the kind you would want to drive economic growth.”
#98 Vanreal on 05.18.21 at 9:35 pm
The reason Canada’s house prices are out of control is because we have such a limited area that is considered desirable to live. The US has their entire country but we have Victoria, the lower mainland, southern Ontario and possibly Montreal. That’s a small land base for 38000000
You need to get out more. – Garth
————–
Haha.
And I’m sure this guy did not major in Canadian geography.
#29 John on 05.18.21 at 4:18 pm
Hi prices in a handful of cities are due to offshore money. Fact.
Fiction. – Garth
——
I agree with John, and disagree with Garth. Pretty obvious if you live in Vancouver or Toronto, offshore funds doesn’t mean nonresidents. It just means immigrants aren’t coming with only $5 in their pocket and working their tail off to give their families opportunities like a lot of the old time immigration success stories. Now they bring suitcases of offshore cash (or Bitcoin), buy property and bid up prices. The funds offset the trade deficit we have from normal cross border business activity. My wife is an immigrant, same story with her family. On another sarcastic note, immigration is good to keep poor countries poor as we steal talent and keep sweatshop manufacturing in the third world where doctors and engineers should not be allowed to thrive, so take your skills , talents and cash to Canada.
#96 No name
A great recipe. Wasp beer leaves paper trails along with chicken gizzards not categorized in the fermentation process. The entrails are best used for flavoring while the intestional tract for the floral attributes best left to a connoisseur appreciative of this distinctive quality usually missed by newbies.
Green fly variations tend to be more intense, like a sour variation with more beef. A veriatable concoction in a mash and lauter tun.
Sparged and boiled with dung would in fact produce the perfect wort perfect for the required steps to produce alcohol. This requires the presence of yeast. Best acquired from toe jam and left to ferment at 60 degrees fahrenheit. After two weeks, cold aging would be advised.
At this point it is only a matter of carbonization and decanting.
#48 Millennial Realist on 05.18.21 at 5:43 pm
Sadly, it’s the Boomer Moister political madness that laid the groundwork for this. Flaherty and Harper started this house-mania and now it’s an out-of-control train heading for….god only knows.
This may be the last big gift that Boomer Moisters leave for the the next generations, right up on top with climate crisis.
We’ve already been run over by you, Boomer Moisters.
That’s why we’re willing to be part of the change now, before it’s too late
——-
Hahaha! I always enjoy your posts! A fantasy come to life in print. A nondescript hope scuttling over the endless shifting sands of the World Wide Web.
The reality is, Boomers (and Gen-X) “love” Trudeau. How could they not? Huge house price inflation. Massive investment gains. Even if they voted for the Cons, they ain’t feeling too angry with Trudeau and the BOC after realizing their RE and portfolio gains outstripped their net employment income last year. To say nothing of the tax free income 3-4 kids might bring in thru Trudeau’s CCB (ask me for details).
No change for you. Get that into you ASAP. Trudeau will be elected again, the BOC will buy more bonds, and Trudeau will empower new buyers. The result? Boomers and Gen- X net worths skyrocket. Portfolio and RE gains will blow a mile high. Again.
Take it from a Gen-X’er who has never voted Trudeau – it’s hard to be upset. I could have taken the last 12 months off and still have made more than I did in 2019.
Eventually, you’ll realize you’ve been played. It’s too bad, because many of your peers have already sniffed it out. Right now, there are zero political platforms that help out Mils and Gen Z – all favour those with liquid and hard assets. This is so obvious, I would have been on to this reality like a dog in heat if I were a Mil right now.
Best of luck homie, Trudeau ain’t in your corner.
Garth, what is the closest historical example of what we are seeing in Canada? Greece perhaps?
There is no slow down in real estate sales in the Niagara region. Here is a local editorial along with an example of a house that sold in 7 days for 60K over asking:
https://www.niagarathisweek.com/opinion-story/10386175-the-only-good-byproduct-of-niagara-s-housing-boom/
https://www.zolo.ca/welland-real-estate/71-diffin-drive#sold-history
The coming stagflation from Biden finishing Jimmy Carter’s second term should see big rate hikes in about a year and then for the next ten. That will prick the housing bubble.
YVR could still see a big influx from Asia once travel resumes….Immense pent up demand caused by the CCP all over Asia.
Lumber and Copper will take a hit as well, but BC is enjoying the extra $700M+ per month while the party lasts.
The pandemic is now over in the US. Very few masks to be seen anymore, from near universal compliance a week ago.
Everyone who wants the vax has had it, everyone else can take the risk like any other as a grown adult, there never was a risk to children. As travel and Cruises etc. come back, the home renovation boom will end (something like 20% of all houses now) and C$ exports will tank along with it.
Wait for the 40% dip in house prices before buying!
For those other two that got same thing as i did, seems to be wondering what other to take. Its seems that mix and match have potentialy may be working tad better than just not mixing, Spanish study shows. ( Study 60 years of age and below )
https://english.elpais.com/society/2021-05-18/study-under-60s-who-received-first-astrazeneca-dose-can-safely-be-given-pfizer-for-second-shot.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true
IHCTD9 on 05.18.21 at 5:37 pm
#40 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.18.21 at 5:19 pm
#113 IHCTD9 on 05.18.21 at 1:12 pm
I think what you’re referring to is the “thousand points of light” inaugural speech by George W. Bush.
Which was parodied by Neil Young in “Keep on rocking in the free World”.
Love that song.
———
Yep that one’s a goodie. I prefer a piece from another Canadian though, better message:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2l6JUNFAJ9o
He’s a fellow BC’er to you!
——————-
Thanks for introducing Tom MacDonald.
Mr. Google tells me he’s a white rapper who favours right wing lyrics.
And he lists The Beatles, Pink Floyd, Janis Joplin and Joe Cocker as major musical influences.
Strange bed fellows.
#115 AM in MN on 05.19.21 at 12:16 am
The coming stagflation from Biden finishing Jimmy Carter’s second
________________________________
Good one! Some people made money during that era, but it wasn’t the 9-5 set. It took money to make that money.
Should a perspective father in law come up with a down payment for a home for his daughter and bully boy friend? Hell, No! If the lad wants to get some action he has to pay the price from his own blood, sweat ,time and self discipline. Hard to do with what employers want to pay and the costs of living but may be in 100 years he just might succeed. May be.
I wonder if the Conservatives have something to do with the rapid increase in house prices? Here’s Doug Ford saying the government shouldn’t be involved in regulating the housing market…. https://www.macleans.ca/economy/realestateeconomy/how-doug-fords-tax-plan-could-bring-back-a-housing-bubble/
Too many young folk lack ambition and have zero sense of adventure. I see so many “kids” (in their 20’s and 30’s), born and raised in Toronto, who haven’t ever done any serious travelling, or know squat about any place other than their home town. They are convinced that Toronto is the centre of the universe, and cannot imagine a life beyond its borders. “It’s because that’s where the jobs are.” These idiots will take some $60K/year crap pseudo middle management white collar job they qualify for after getting a masters degree in some useless discipline, and happily mortgage themselves to the tune of half a million dollars or more, rather than move to a different town where houses cost a third or less than what they do in the big smoke, because they have no guts or sense of adventure or creativity, or any inkling whatsoever to carve themselves an alternate path. The ultimate braindead followers. Good luck, kiddos. This city will crush your soul, and you’ll be in debt forever if you choose that path. And in the end, you’ll realize that Toronto kind of sucks. A lot of money to spend in the abyss of mediocrity.
@#113 WFH Ape
“Garth, what is the closest historical example of what we are seeing in Canada? Greece perhaps?”
+++
Venezuela.
Think of Trudeau as Chavez and the socialist utopia where everyone loses weight….and you’re halfway there.
#102 millenlial on 05.18.21 at 10:12 pm
Ok, so what if we want to pay 100,000 more – on a 1.25 million home that’s less than 9% over. You make it seem like its tons of money. It barely changes our payment.
That’s the same % as paying 435k for a 400k house. But you don’t say the percentages to make it sound much worse – almost fear mongering.
Everyone older than us just seems jealous. You guys need to get over it. We can afford it, don’t worry about us as much as you can’t understand it.
———-
Incisive! And credit card interest is only 1.5% per month.
All you supposedly ‘financial’ people so afraid of a few percents. Ha ha. Millenials scoff. Ha.
#117 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.19.21 at 2:05 am
IHCTD9 on 05.18.21 at 5:37 pm
#40 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.18.21 at 5:19 pm
#113 IHCTD9 on 05.18.21 at 1:12 pm
I think what you’re referring to is the “thousand points of light” inaugural speech by George W. Bush.
Which was parodied by Neil Young in “Keep on rocking in the free World”.
Love that song.
———
Yep that one’s a goodie. I prefer a piece from another Canadian though, better message:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2l6JUNFAJ9o
He’s a fellow BC’er to you!
——————-
Thanks for introducing Tom MacDonald.
Mr. Google tells me he’s a white rapper who favours right wing lyrics.
And he lists The Beatles, Pink Floyd, Janis Joplin and Joe Cocker as major musical influences.
Strange bed fellows.
____
TM is what Rap used to be. I guess right wing ideas must be counter-culture these days. His channel has over half a billion views.
He’s interesting because it’s just him and his wife that do it all, and they are YouTube millionaires. No Label, no production team, no record deal.
Looks like Bitcoin/Ethereum/Doge all crashing in unison today. They are but the top three, there are over 5,000 coins ‘types’ now available in the market to purchase.
For comparison, there’s only 3,000 varieties of tulips.
I expect I might get deleted for bringing up this ‘non finance, non real estate’ matter, and maybe I’m just a lone Jaguar on the perimeter of populist thinking, but I’m a little outraged at the treatment of Dany Fortin, the Canadian Forces Officer dragged down and being put through the wringer on what’s being called ‘Historical Sexual Misconduct’.
Holy moly, the guy can’t be older than 50 and the accusation is from 1989, so he was just out of short pants. And yes I’ll say it, the ‘times were different’ . The military had its own version of “Froshing” in those days. There were lots of low crimes and high misdemeanors back in the 1980’s and both men and women participated. Not to excuse any current investigation into real abuse of power and position, but this one ain’t passing the smell test with me. There needs to be a statute of limitations for dogs sake.
A Witch Hunt with ‘Me too” overtones is how I see it. What a disgrace to do this to a man who has served his country so well. A good looking man too, If I may say so.. Enough said.
@crowdedelevator –
Ya, it’s like people from Alberta who bafflingly continue to say “the East” when they mean Ontario. It’s like, there are more provinces east of Ontario than west of it, you know?
@IHCTD9 –
Turns out my new motorcycle arrived after all, but according to lockdown rules I’m not allowed to go get it!
#justNSthings
#125 Lefty on 05.19.21 at 9:19 am
Lets see if crypto stays down and then if the RE market follows suit in a few months.
I bet there will be a grip more listings by August.
@#126 The Jaguar
“A Witch Hunt with ‘Me too” overtones is how I see it. ”
++++
Yep.
The new Millennia’s ( Millennial?) version of Stalin’s 1930’s purges of the military.
Eradicated all the officers a few years before the Nazi’s invaded.
Top Canadaian Military leadership ….
Accused for “alleged crimes”….in todays 10 second sound bite, media saturated world, is as good as “tried and convicted”
Good to know Canada’s WOKE crowd are gutting the experienced military leadership and replacing them with acceptable politically correct bureaucrats….. as the entire world becomes a more dangerous place.
Sleep well while you still can Mills, the Boomers are too old to conscript.
:)
@126 Jaguar
Good post; I agree with it. Times were different; maybe they are better now, but, things change. Guys can look after young kids now for instance.
Two things here:
1) When I did the “guy looking after young kid thing” two grandmotherly types told me “you are doing woman’s work. Stop it”
2) Ok, say we have a range of people, and class them from outliers to straight down the line:
A B C D C B A
Remove the outliers, “because they are [insert “crime” here] you have
B. C D. C. B
Repeat and rinse because the outliers are [insert “crime” here]…
C. D. C
Gosh, still outliers, repeat…
D
And, now you are looking into the mirror. Do you like what you see?
Well, the markets are a sea of red today and fairly equivalently down across sectors. Might be worth adding some here and there, but nothing too compelling. Best to hold on for the next sector mini-disaster?
All these pesky dividends clamouring for a job…
#126 the Jaguar on 05.19.21 at 9:34 am
How about this: you agree not to acquit until more is known and I’ll agree not to view him as guilty? Sounds like a minor incident being made into news because of a slow period in the media cycle.
No crypto shills saying this is the time to buy, platforms seeing “disruptions” as people charging for the exits.
When BTC was at ATH people where posting about the currency taking over, I know a couple of people who are taking big loses after buying near the top.
@#126 the Jaguar on 05.19.21 at 9:34 am
I expect I might get deleted for bringing up this ‘non finance, non real estate’ matter, and maybe I’m just a lone Jaguar on the perimeter of populist thinking, but I’m a little outraged at the treatment of Dany Fortin, the Canadian Forces Officer dragged down and being put through the wringer on what’s being called ‘Historical Sexual Misconduct’.
Holy moly, the guy can’t be older than 50 and the accusation is from 1989, so he was just out of short pants. And yes I’ll say it, the ‘times were different’ . The military had its own version of “Froshing” in those days. There were lots of low crimes and high misdemeanors back in the 1980’s and both men and women participated. Not to excuse any current investigation into real abuse of power and position, but this one ain’t passing the smell test with me. There needs to be a statute of limitations for dogs sake.
A Witch Hunt with ‘Me too” overtones is how I see it. What a disgrace to do this to a man who has served his country so well. A good looking man too, If I may say so.. Enough said.
—-
really depends on what the guy actually did back then.
@#121 Dharma Bum on 05.19.21 at 8:17 am
Too many young folk lack ambition and have zero sense of adventure. I see so many “kids” (in their 20’s and 30’s), born and raised in Toronto, who haven’t ever done any serious travelling, or know squat about any place other than their home town. They are convinced that…
–
lol, epic generalizations.
#127 MT on 05.19.21 at 10:03 am
@crowdedelevator –
Ya, it’s like people from Alberta who bafflingly continue to say “the East” when they mean Ontario. It’s like, there are more provinces east of Ontario than west of it, you know?
@IHCTD9 –
Turns out my new motorcycle arrived after all, but according to lockdown rules I’m not allowed to go get it!
#justNSthings
_____
Keep a stiff upper lip! I saw my neighbour 2 doors down had a brand new fishing boat parked next to his garage yesterday.
#132 Sail Away on 05.19.21 at 11:41 am
Vixperation today and mopex this week on top of tax selling in the US. Some weakness was expected. Prob some more turmoil for a spell as market participants adjust into “real economy” sectors and out of overinflated crapcos and crypto who’s time may be up. Look for bargains in economic backbones. Energy, mining, industrials, banks. Broken record here.
And, yes I hedged for this. jam_croissant on twitter is gold.
#129 crowdedelevatorfartz
Sleep well while you still can Mills, the Boomers are too old to conscript.
—————————————–
True, but the Boomers are ready, willing and able to serve in advisory roles. These are thankless jobs to be sure, but we’re quite used to that.
@#126 The Jaguar
“A Witch Hunt with ‘Me too” overtones is how I see it. ”
———
Yep.
The new Millennia’s ( Millennial?) version of Stalin’s 1930’s purges of the military.
———
Guilty until never proven innocent no matter the ruling. Another career sacrificed to the deity of woke.
Anecdote time: our small town Alaska co-ed hockey team shared the minimal locker rooms and men/women were pretty casual about the whole dressing/undressing thing. At a summer beach bbq at the glacier lake, a few guys stripped down, pulled toques over their heads and went skinnydippping.
A group of women:
‘Who is that?’
‘I don’t know. Not my husband’
‘Nobody on my hockey team’
121 Dharma Bum on 05.19.21 at 8:17 am
Too many young folk lack ambition and have zero sense of adventure. I see so many “kids” (in their 20’s and 30’s), born and raised in Toronto,
______________________________
I was educated in that Toronto group think, and when I was offered a temp gig in NS in ’77, I asked double the offer because I thought NS was just a welfare suburb of NFLD and so on.
As soon as I got here and saw the RE prices, I decided this was the place to be payed crap pay. Not the GTA!
This has ended well.
#134 KLNR on 05.19.21 at 11:53 am
really depends on what the guy actually did back then.
____
From the sounds of it, he “exposed himself” to her. Young and stupid, in University and probably drunk – decades ago.
What-ev.
I have been downwind of such expositions and much “worse” at the hands of Women. For some reason I just can’t gather the motivation to launch a “Historical Sexual Misconduct” case against any of them.
What a waste of time…
#139 Sail Away on 05.19.21 at 12:09 pm
Guilty until never proven innocent no matter the ruling. Another career sacrificed to the deity of woke.
___
Yep, he’s already been pulled and replaced. Hopefully the rumor that he flashed someone in the 80’s are way off, because he’s done now. Even if it turns out all he did was wink at someone in a bar. He’s toast.
It’s just too damn easy.
@#141 IHCTD9
Maybe it was a wardrobe malfunction. Did that not happen to Janet Jackson?
#143 the jaguar on 05.19.21 at 1:38 pm
@#141 IHCTD9
Maybe it was a wardrobe malfunction. Did that not happen to Janet Jackson?
____
You never know, maybe Justin Timberlake was in the area at the time…
#142 IHCTD9 on 05.19.21 at 12:59 pm
#139 Sail Away on 05.19.21 at 12:09 pm
Guilty until never proven innocent no matter the ruling. Another career sacrificed to the deity of woke.
___
Yep, he’s already been pulled and replaced. Hopefully the rumor that he flashed someone in the 80’s are way off, because he’s done now. Even if it turns out all he did was wink at someone in a bar. He’s toast.
It’s just too damn easy.
*****************************
Remember when #meetoo started and some actual bad guys got caught? Did they run out of them?
Exposed himself to a woman when he was a teenager in the 80s?
Maybe my time in co-ed saunas and nude beaches has desensitized me, but is this even that big a deal?
What’s next, losing your job because you once mooned someone? Literally, my whole high school grad class did that, and there’s photo evidence.
Nonplused on 05.18.21 at 8:14 pm
#71 Ponzius Pilatus on 05.17.21 at 8:22 pm
#70 nonplused
Re: Wasps
They only go for meat and sugary food.
So if your a vegetarian and don’t have a sweet tooth, they should not bother you.
Also, we always put some raw meat pieces about 10 feet from the table.
That keeps them occupied.
———————————-
Why would a vegetarian have raw pieces of meat? Thus I use traps. And nuke chemicals when necessary.
I also use mosquito traps and coils. I don’t mind nature, but not on my deck.
=====================
If we get back to basics… a vegetarian IS a raw piece of meat.
It is deck weather on the west coast Big Island today.
Cheers, R
DaDaDa…….moving out of Canada….what country do you suggest a Canadian ought to live.
#146 SoggyShorts on 05.19.21 at 2:41 pm
#142 IHCTD9 on 05.19.21 at 12:59 pm
#139 Sail Away on 05.19.21 at 12:09 pm
Guilty until never proven innocent no matter the ruling. Another career sacrificed to the deity of woke.
___________________________________________
First of all Sexual Assault and Rape are no joke, and people who are quilty of that need to be punished.
But some minor stuff as a teenager or even in your 20s or over 30 years ago coming back to haunt you is a little crazy. As a Teen or early 20s; Ive gone skinny dipping, mooned people and friends. We had party’s in College when a guy passed out they could be sent up the elevator in his underware to the nurses floors, they would magic marker them and send them back. Even one time I had my cloths taken and had to walk back to the barracks naked. There are many things Guys and Girls are doing right now that may not seem like a big deal, but become successful, or well known and it will come out and get you. Think of all the facebook, instagram, messenger content that is being put out now by teens and 20 somethings. I’m just glad all that social media did not exist for this Gen Xer.